JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:17

they're scoring a lot of runs

12:18

and the rotation's going to be the bigger concern to deal with

Matt Vierling

12:18

His underlying numbers seem to suggest more in the tank. Does he have breakout potential?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I'm skeptical. I still think he's a good stopgap or fourth OF type

Which is actually better than I felt about him a few years ago

Kelenic

12:18

Has his recent run changed his long term outlook?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Slightly more optimistic for sure

Tampa Fred

12:19

How/why did you become a member of the Cincinnati BBWAA.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Well, Cincy because I live in the area

12:21

I probably could have gotten into the BBWAA before 2016, but I was a real wuss about asking. Passan applied some kind peer-pressure on me to ask Trent Rosecrans and I did.

One of my decision-making flaws as a person is I have a crazy amount of inertia

if I'm content about something, I generally like the status quo

Yainer Diaz

12:22

Am I closer to the reincarnation of Javy Lopez or did I lose my power?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I think that was always too high a projection if you're saying Javy Lopez

But Diaz ought to be a decentish offense-first catcher no matter his 2024

Guest

12:22

what do you like better, a time for chats or un temps pour chats?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I see what you did there

12:23

Though cats aren't being very interesting at the moment

Insert Witty Name Here

12:23

Reading this book called Marx for Cats. Thought of you, I’d suggest checking it out and we can discuss during the off season.

KC Pain

12:23

Is there some analytics that says to not walk players? Do pitchers not pitch around guys anymore? Do they not do intentional walks? Judge has 53 in his career! He has 5! this year. He had 19 his best year. Bonds, in a bad year hitting .248 in 1989 had 22 IBB. In 1992 32, in 1993 43. Then it goes bonkers and in 2002 68 and of course the 120 in 2004.
Bonds was a great hitter. Judge is crushing. A guy who has done it before. This isnt a surprise. He has no lineup protection. Yet, everytime I look up some scrub is trying to get a meatball past him. Last night Soto on and thrown right down the damn middle in a 1-2 count. Orrr, face JD Davis, Verdugo, DJ LeMahieu, and Austin Wells.
I even own Judge on one of my two teams. Just drives me insane. Also, Ohtani also hitting .300+ and 25+ HR has… 2 IBB. At least Gunnar bats leadoff and has bats behind him
Right up there with, “our beat hitter is coming to bat, let us try and steal and get caught to end the inning.”. WHYYYY????????
-End Rant

Dan Szymborski

12:23

It's just that for intentional walks, you need to have a REALLY big gulf between batters

it's what we called "weak protection" in the 90s

12:24

in that there wasn't really an observable protection effect as generally thought of

BUT, in very lopsided situations, like the #8 batter in NL games, there was a real intentional walk effect

Which is why if you look at NL IBB leaders in individual years in the 80s and 90s

12:25

You'll see great hitters and the occasional crappy SS or C

12:27

Like the back to back IBB leads for Garry Templeton (post-1981 when he was no longer good)

Esix Snead

12:27

What is your immediate reaction to the Texas A&M shakeup? LaViolette instantly the most exciting player to hit the portal since...?

Do you fault Schlossnagle for leaving A&M in the current college environment? Is it as simple as Texas showed him what $100 bills looked like when measured in cubic yards?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I only know the basic situation! This isn't really my area of expertise. You should bug the Baseball America guys on twitter or something

wwait, I didn't mean to sound negative

That came off really badly and I apologize

I mean that you should ask them as they pay more attention to the day to day stuff

12:31

Hey Dan, any explanation for the NL home run drought of 1946? Kiner lead the league with 23! The AL seemed normal.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think it's just one of those weird quirks

You still had the effects of lower quality wartime baseballs