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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/24

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Dan Szymborski

1:11

Meh. He was like a wRC+ 115 (UNtranslated) guy in AAA, which isn't impressive for a 1B

Maybe meh-minus

bobbles

1:11

Seems like Jordan Westburg has dramatically exceeded expectations, going from a projected but player/part time infielder to a major offensive and defensive contributor in the orioles. Do you expect him to leep

Dan Szymborski

1:12

I will note that ZiPS projected him as a three-win per year player from 2025-2029 BEFORE the season. So I certainly don't like him less than I or ZiPS did in March!

Guest

1:12

We all knew Gunnar had power, but not like this. What do we think now? Epic random hot streak? Brady Anderson mystery 50HR season? Sustainable 40+ HR power?

Dan Szymborski

1:12

I don't think he's gong to stay at 40 homers, but he's elite

Syllogism

1:13

lol --- D&D ... sweet! Back in the day, a friend and I created a system for DUNE! Thanks so much for what you do! Of Schuemann, Schneemann, Austin Martin, Horowitz ... who do you think might stick?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

Martin's certainly the most INTERESTING of them

re: Nats

1:15

I know this isn't your area of expertise, but how will securities fraud investigations change after the Supreme Court's decision this morning in Jarkesy?

Dan Szymborski

1:15

Heh, REALLY out o fmy area of expertise

I imagine that we go back to pre Dodd-Frank limits on administrative remedies?

1:16

I'm not an expert -- again, NOT NOT NOT an expert -- but this feels like one of the many decisions that I think is correct even though I'm unhappy about the consequences.

Guest

1:16

KATAMARI DAMACY (DAAAMAAAHTSUIIIIIII) ... hell yeah! Many nights with friends drinking and playing that on PS

Dan Szymborski

1:17

But you should never ever ever be getting SCOTUS analysis from me

Greg

1:17

I am very surprised by the hitting of Joey Ortiz this year. In the past 2 months in 194 PA he has a 500 SL:G and 889 OPS. I see the projections systems aren't buying it. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski

1:17

This would be a very aggressive bump

1:18

but he always had a good chance to be really good

it's not like the O's didn't like Ortiz. They knew they were trading someone would might be excellent. But they REALLY wanted Burnes

Oaktown Blues

1:18

Why is Aledmys Diaz still on the A's roster? Is it just because he can stand in between 2B and 3B and pretend to be a SS?

Dan Szymborski

1:18

The A's are standing in between April and September and pretending they're a baseball franchise

so it seems on point

Bob Loblaw

1:19

Which is the true Cardinals: the before May 12 Cardinals or the after May 12 Cardinals?

Dan Szymborski

1:19

Something in between

Everyone projected them to be around .500

and they've been around .500

Jerry

1:19

Dan, you're running the Blue Jays. What are you doing at the trade deadline? Sell off free agents or sell everybody including Bo and Vlad? 2026 is looking scary.

Dan Szymborski

1:19

I might actually sell if I haven't been able to extend Bichette before then

This looks like a sellers market

and the Jays are in a pretty icky hole

1:20

not so far back in wins, but they have to leapfrog a LOT

Reds Enjoyer

1:20

Really enjoyed the piece on the 2016 Cubs last week. Had me wondering: does ZiPS give you the ability to plug in any player at any time to see what their projections would have been at certain points in their career? For instance, seeing what Beltre's rest of career projections would have been after his last season in Seattle just to see how much he was crushing the aging curve by.

Dan Szymborski

1:20

Yes, though not inseason

I can project Adrian Beltre after X season, but not after July 12th on X season as I'd have to take a few extra automated steps

1:21

(I'd have to get the in-season projection and then instruct ZiPS to then use THAT projection for the season in question)

Adam

1:21

Setting aside the feasibility of how it would get there, what animal escaping onto the field during a game would be most hilarious?

Dan Szymborski

1:21

I think an elephant

1:22

Nobody in security is equipped to stop an elephant

and the elephant isn't going to eat a player, which makes it more likely to stay hilarious rather than become tragic

Like tigers aren't entertaining when one mauls Byron Buxton

Guest

1:23

is there any more annoying food fact than lunch meat is carcinogenic? (I'm having roast beef and cheddar today anyway)

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