JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:04

OMG ITS CHAT TIME

cool

1

party

1

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:04

In your recent article re: deGrom you stated that, “Shane Bieber‘s 1.63 was the second-best ERA for a qualifying pitcher since Gibson’s in 1968, behind only Dwight Gooden’s 1.53 in 1985.” Why don’t Greg Maddux’s 1.56 in 202IP in 1994 and 1.63 in 209.2IP qualify? Dudeman’s ERA was 1.5959 across 411.2IP in 53 games in those strike-shortened seasons!

Dan Szymborski

12:06

That was my screwup (which I've fixed). My brain was a little fried and I as trying to compare the excellence to full season ERAs to show how high they ranked, but I messed up the talking point and ranked it *with* the full seasons instead of contrasting

And didn't bring 1981, 1994, 1995 back in

Everything else should be solid though

Jefferson

12:06

Ke'bryan Hayes is back today! How scared is Zips from a two month long wrist injury?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

ZiPS won't know about it until the end of the season!

Thomas

12:07

I feel like we should be talking more about Marcus Semien? Based on results-so-far, he's looking like the best signing of the off-season. Basically the ideal pillow contract. What sort of the deal do you think he gets this offseason? Is the Springer contract a reasonable comp (same age, similar career WAR totals - Springer's been more consistent, but Semien's hit higher highs.)

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Hey, I loved the signing, I think!

12:08

Dude had like 11 WAR over two seasons and people wanted to throw it out the window just because of one season in which he was only on a three win pace

one SHORT season

12:09

ZiPS had him at 4.2 WAR coming into the season.

The Reds were idiots to not outbid for that

(as were a lot, but especially the Reds)

Guest

12:09

Marcus Semien being an absolute steal for the Blue Jays. I thought he'd be good but not "3rd best position player in the league" good.

Kate

12:09

Tucker Davidson getting another ML start today. Looked good in his first start a couple weeks ago and has been really good at AAA. Think he can hold a ML rotation spot and become something interesting? Eric's recent report has the stuff kind of the same, but the command ticking up.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think there's a good chance. More necessary to look at him with Soroka's middle-term being really up in the air

Kate

12:10

Odds Bryan Reynolds gets moved at the deadline? He's quietly been pretty damn good.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think it's more likely than not that he is moved.

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:10

Novel idea for implementing a pitch clock in MLB: rather than require that the pitch be thrown before the timer runs out, how about requiring that the pitcher merely come set? I feel like this would help alleviate some concerns about pitchers rushing their deliveries. If too many guys were to start abusing this (by stepping off the rubber after coming set) a limit could be imposed. Only impose the clock when the bases are empty (like the minors).

Dan Szymborski

12:11

You could do that. Though it's important to pair it with good batters box rules

cool

2

Batters shouldn't be granted timeout just so they can rearrange their groinal area

Kate

12:11

What do you make of the talk of Willy Adames' home / away splits from his time with the Rays? Think there is something legit there where he could see a sizable uptick in offense just from moving to MIL?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I wouldn't worry too much about home/road splits. Like platoon splits, generic park factors actually will predict future home/road splits far better than a player's actual home/road splits until you have a *lot* of data.

That being said, it should enhance his average-plus power somewhat

12:13

Though Miller a bit better for lefties

I WILL NOT CALL IT AMERICAN FAMILY

They didn't pay *me* for naming rights

billsaints

12:13

Could you see the Rays doing a move for a Scherzer out some such go for it move?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

It doens't really feel like a Nats thing

err a Rays thing

12:14

but I don't think the Nats will unless they REALLY fall out of it

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:14

Dan Szymborski

12:14

It's probably better than cincinnati chili

Jefferson

12:14

The lady wants tacos for dinner tonight. How do I convince her that chilli is the better choice?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Wait, I love tacos.

I eat more tacos than chili.

laughing

1

Guest

12:14

Has Dansby Swanson finally tapped into his true potential or is this a hot streak? Any underlying metrics to make sense of this?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Ah, the Dansby Swanson Pendulum

12:15

All questions about Dansby Swanson are either people wondering if he's now awesome or if he's not horrible.

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