JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/5/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/5/25

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Dallas

12:26

good afternoon! Question- but underlying numbers suggest Henry Davis is (slowly) starting to make better swing decisions and contact at the plate. Considering the pitching staff is raving about his defense, is there a chance he can become a 55 level player akin to what the pirates expected when they drafted him?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I think there *is* such a chance. Catchers are really, really weird developmentally. They disappear suddenly, they blow up suddenly. The error ranges in the median projection for catchers is actually noticeably worse than for other positions, even if we JUST look at offense

Guest

12:27

Does Cade Horton stick in the rotation all season for the Cubs? And when will we see Bubba Chandler for the Bucs?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

He's interesting, but I'm not *confident* in Horton sticking. He's come a long way in command, but he still has to work on the early-Eovaldi problem of having trouble getting ot that strike three

12:30

Which is really dangerous; the longer a hitter lingers without being punched out, there more likely they'll find their pitch

TKDC

12:30

If a team could be convinced that Bauer would change how he presents himself publicly and at least pretend to be a halfway decent person, do you think he could be signed, or is his past baggage and current talent level still make him a negative value asset?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

This is a hard question for me to ask simply because at this point, I can't claim to have any particular insight in how a *typical* fan sees these things.

12:31

At the end of the day, the average fan doesn't appear to have any issue with Ozuna or Chapman as long as they're playing well for their favorite team.

But I'm not sure how mainstream the Bauer story actually was. After all, I live in a baseball journalism bubble.

12:32

I'm cynical, so I actually kinda think team's would be *more* worried about his discipline on social media

So...I dunno?

Boobic

12:33

Boy I didn’t expect this hot start from K. Bubic! Confidence he can keep up a sub-3 ERA ROS?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Under three is a REALLY big ask for anyone

Appa Yip Yip

12:33

Are you buying what Addison Barger is selling?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I don't think he's *this* good. It's funny, I just mentioned this issue on twitter pre chat

12:34

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1930652332108517504

I think he's a good part of a team. I don't think he's a 130 wRC+ guy

12:35

Though it DOES make me happy in that some OOTP players were really annoyed with me that ZiPS was projecting a nobody like Barger to be pretty good

admin

12:36

Skenes K numbers are down from last year. Is this intentional, concerning, neither, both?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Not at all concerning. His contact/swinging strike numbers are actualy better than last year.

Jac Caglianone

12:37

You tell the Royals to bring him up, and they bring him up. What are you going to tell them to do next?

laughing

1

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Give me a few million dollars? I lik emoney.

Alex

12:37

What percentile outcome was the Giants' 2021 season in Zips? Was that the biggest positive deviation from the median projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Oh, it was 99.something. I mentioned it on Twitter back then. I think it was 99.7, but let me see if I can find it real fast

12:39

Whew, found my tweet from November 2022

2021 Giants (99.9%)
2012 Orioles (99.7%)
2012 Athletics (99.4%)
2009 Marlins (99.4%)
2010 Blue Jays (99.2%)
----------------------------
23 teams in 540 teams (4.3%) hit their 95th percentile projection.

wtf

why is it wrong color

2021 Giants (99.9%)
2012 Orioles (99.7%)
2012 Athletics (99.4%)
2009 Marlins (99.4%)
2010 Blue Jays (99.2%)
----------------------------
23 teams in 540 teams (4.3%) hit their 95th percentile projection.

OK, copied it to text document and then to here

12:40

It was the most in terms of actual wins too

Darrenasu

12:41

You can start your franchise by picking from the following. Langford, Holliday, Merrill. Who ya got?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Merrill. I love Holliday, but he's playing at superstar levels right now and only a year older

He's a plug and play guy. He doesn't need to get any better.

namenamename

12:42

Which of these three players make it to 300-300: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think the first two very likely

12:44

Altuve I think it's closer. I think ZiPS had him at like 60% for 300 HRs (which is of course his chance since he already has the SBs)

Justin

12:44

Hi Dan. The framing numbers on Ryan Doumit are unbelievably bad. One year he had a 123 wrc+ and was still worth -3.1 war. Is it even possible that he was that bad?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

It's certainly POSSIBLE

Philip

12:44

Yarbrough has gone 5+ innings in his last 4 starts. Is he doing anything different that makes you believe he can be a real starter rather than a bulk guy type?

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