JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/14/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/14/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

There's an interesting thing here

now, there are obvious selection bias issues

but righty changeups vs. lefties and vs. righties show almost no difference

but lefty changeups vs. lefties and vs. righties should a significant difference (obviously in favor of righties)

12:36

But you have to approach it differently

12:38

Like Gausman will use his splitter against righties almost like it's a slider

KC Fountains

12:38

Dayton Moore’s positions on vaccination and masturbation couldn’t be farther from my own.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:38

The Royals won a World Series and it seems Moore and his front office get a free pass indefinitely. How many years does a World Series championship buy the GM on an average MLB team?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Man, did everyone as hard on the Royals as me decided to come to chat this week as a group?

Fewer

Moore has extraordinarily long rope

12:39

In the year since he became the GM, they have the third-worst record in baseball behind Orioles and Marlins

Guest

12:39

What does a 100th percentile Shohei season look like? Is it unreasonable to say 5+ hitting WAR/7+ pitching WAR and still have that understate his true value?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think the 99.99th percentile Ohtani projection breaks baseball and they have to restart the season like a temperamental internet router

Sonny

12:40

Saw Mike Petriello’s article on bat speed at MLB, anything you’re excited to see in those numbers (other than Yordan breaking the curve)?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Oh, I'm very excited to see those numbers. What I find depends on what I find!

Matt (Oceanside)

12:40

Regarding Bellinger, when I look at him and his athletic ability, plus 2019 performance, he seems like he has the talent to be that type of person. When I watch him hit though, yikes, his bat path is super slow with that stance. Do you think he is a stubborn person that doesn't listen to coaches? If I was that bad at the plate, I feel like I would want to change that....new stance, shorter to the ball...something :(

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I don't like assigning character flaws to players or, in most cases, to front office people either.

angry

1

12:41

But his Carlos Baerga career path is concerning

Vent

12:42

If you had to live with one member of the 2002 Cincinnati Reds, who would it be?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Ken Griffey Jr.

Interesting stories

and he falls asleep during the day sitting in a chair too

Wingedbeater

12:42

I’ve seen some arguments that Ohtani must be the MVP that turn on the value of the extra roster spot he opens up for his team by virtue of being two-way player. These arguments generally start with his WAR, which is in the upper echelon of AL players. They next add some undefined amount to that total, under the assumption that the extra roster spot Ohtani grants his team vaults his value far beyond those who have similar or even higher WARs. What do you think of arguments that proceed in this way? How much is an extra roster spot worth?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

The extra roster spot is a tricky one

I'm not sure it's valuable enough beyond the normal significant error in WAR

Especially because there's a downside too

If he's awesome, you have two awesome players in one

but if he's severely injured, you also LOSE two awesome players

12:44

Kind of like if your favorite taco place and favorite beer place share a building and then the building burns down

laughing

1

X marks

12:45

Hey Dan! Thank you for your. Awesome work. Wat does ZIPS think of the new Xavier Edwards who apparently doesn’t steal but does... has some pop?? You/ZIPS buying it?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

ZiPS does give him a solidish translation for the season, though still skeptical beyond a good role player

Greg

12:45

I certainly hope that the Earl Weaver Special is a relief role and not something that happened to Alice Sweet at the bars last night

Gil

12:46

That artisan keycap question has me curious since I've been interested in changing up my keyboard: How much have you invested solely in keyboard related costs in, say, the last 5 or so years?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I dunno, 500 maybe?

keeb guy

12:46

I screwed up my last chat, I forgot to put in "the market is ripe for an entirely baseball themed keyset"

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Yeah, i'm not sure there's quite enough crossover

12:47

But I don't know how much a timesink it would be to make it

Cincinnati Billy

12:47

I understand that you are always tinkering with and trying to improve ZIPS, but I imagine that there are certain possible improvements you cannot make based on foundational things baked into the system. If you were starting ZIPS from scratch today, is there something foundational you cannot now change but would tell young Dan to change at the jump?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

ZiPS is actually quite flexible. Since it's all basically modular, I can change basically anything

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