JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

I've got bourbon; let's do this.

Greg

12:02

Your article summed it up well -- the Braves are done. So what does a good trade deadline plan look like for them?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I think you have to shop Morton

12:03

And I' strongly consider trading Heredia/Almonte if you can get an interesting sorta prospect for either. They're not young

Neither should be playing full-time rest of season or Arcia for that matter

Not sure if there's Smyly interest, but I'd at least inquire

Adam

12:03

O/U 5 games for Dodgers' eventual NL West winning margin?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Under

Dansby SwanSong

12:03

Just wondering if the All Star clown uniforms bothered you? Do you think MLB Marketing is out of touch?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

They were bad, but they weren't bad as like all the hats from MLB/New Era have released this year

barney gumble

12:04

how much longer are the tigers in rebuild mode for? they have some great pieces and prospects to build around

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I think until they have more offensive depth in the minors beyond the very obvious top few prospects

Kate

12:04

How much would getting traded improve your view of Jon Gray in fantasy?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Quite a bit!

I mean Coors

Adam

12:05

You think Scherzer gets moved? What would he fetch in return?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

He will not be moved.

Derek

12:05

There is baseball today! But... why is there exactly one game baseball today? Is this a makeup game or an intentional showcase of Yankees-Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Oh right, i forgot that was tonight

Ok, ALMOST no baseball

Adam

12:06

Is Gavin Sheets anything special (besides to his loved ones, of course)?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I am skeptical

Dave

12:07

What's the reason behind rest of season projections differing from preseason projections for players that have yet to play in 2021? Slightly different spot on the aging curve? Slightly different league environment? Something else?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

League environment is a big part of it

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:07

You expecting a much different Jarred Kelenic this time around?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Absofrigginglutely

Braves Or Barves?

12:07

The Braves seem like they’re at a crossroads. Their major league roster isn’t especially talented after Acuna and Freeman, and the former is out for potentially a year and the latter is a free agent who will be 32 next season. The AAA team doesn’t have many everyday MLB players (yet) and most older pitching prospects (Wright) haven’t performed. The more intriguing prospects are in the lower levels and need a few more years before they’re viable trade pieces or major league contributors, with the exception of maybe Shewmake. They also don’t spend much in free agency unless it’s one-year deals, which has been hit or miss. Should they do a small rebuild with the goal of getting the best possible team around Acuna in 2023? It’s hard to see a path in 2022.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't necessarily think a rebuilt

But I do think they need to retool and be more aggressive at investing in free agency

12:08

Acuña/Albies/Freeman is a really nice core

Plus Anderson/Fried

Redbeard

12:08

Who headlines the first biggish trade in deadline season?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Ima gonna say Gallo

12:09

I know Gallo likes Texas, but he makes real sense for like 4 or 5 serious contenders and I think the Rangers will get a generous package

Jay and I talk about Gallo more on tomorrow's FanGraphs Audio drop though, so listen to that!

ALL CAPS ARE BEAUTIFUL

12:09

Why is spin rate expressed in RPM instead of RPS? RPM makes zero sense whatsoever. No baseball has ever been in flight for an entire minute (unless dropped from a plane) and even it if were, it wouldn't maintain its spin rate for a the whole minute. Everyone knows a pitch takes a fraction of a second to reach the plate, so RPS is a much more relatable measure. Make it so!

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think cause we know rpm in other contexts

Kate

12:13

Underlying numbers (contact rate, swinging strike rate, CSW) on Patrick Sandoval seem to indicate he should be striking out more guys than he is. Does ZiPS see him as a K underperformer?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

It does, but the margin has shrunk since late May

12:14

He just missed the chart in that piece at 7.1, but that's shrunken to 4.5

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