JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/15/21

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Erik

12:15

If there was a prospect who looked like as sure a bet as possible to be the best high-leverage reliever on a contender very quickly but had zero chance of starting, how high would you select him in the draft?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

A definite thing? Probably by 15. Higher than that and you pretty much get non-contending teams that shouldn't be prioritizing relievers

Smiling Politely

12:16

Hey Dan -- What's up with Gavin Lux? He's got a double digit walk rate at age 23 and works counts, but the contact quality looks bad. I know he was one of your guys to watch (and one for me, too, lol). Think he'll start hitting more or should we start lowering the floor/ceiling?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I do think we should set our sights a bit lower

There's a lot of uncertainty.

12:17

I think we'll find, looking back in 10 years, that the players hurt the most were the ones on the cusp of being major leaguers

(from COVID layoff)

Kate

12:17

Has Schwarber at least assured himself of an everyday role for 2022 (assuming there is a season) with his strong play so far this year? He seemed to be in danger of falling into more of a platoon role after struggling last year.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Yes

ALL CAPS ARE BEAUTIFUL

12:17

Solution to the sticky stuff issue: Suede baseballs.

Dave

12:17

I'm a weirdo and am trying to create a projection system for my Out of the Park. I'm struggling on how to figure out the MLE adjustment for each level and also how to calculate the aging curve at each level. Sorry if this is a little too specific of a question but any tips on calculating those adjustments?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

You could theoretically do year 0-->year 1 simulations and run your own

12:17

Omar Narvaez currently has a 137 wRC+, but his ZiPS rest of season projection is a 113 wRC+. Christian Yelich currently has a 116 wRC+, but his ZiPS rest of season projection is a 136 wRC+. Which player do you think ZiPs is mostly like to be correct on for the ROS projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Probably Narvaez

Kretin

12:18

Is Justin Upton back? Or at least serviceable for the last 1.5 years of his contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think serviceable is reasonable. I'm not at the point where I'd call him back yet

Erik

12:18

Are you treating Jarred Kelenic's poor first MLB stretch as anything other than a 23-game blip? He did strike out a lot more than he did in the minors, but it's not as if a 28.3 K% is awful these days.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I'm not worried

Dave

12:19

As a heads up, since you probably know who to report this to more than I do, Yoshi Tsutsugo appears to have two different pages, one for his minor league stats and one for his major league stats. Unless he has an identical twin I'm not aware of.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I'll let 'em know

Faz

12:20

Do the Indians sell? Should they sell? I’m a fan but I feel as though they should Jose and Bieber to maximize return and turn a quick rebuild.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

No. Yes.

Sum

12:20

okay, the AS unis were bad, but those Giants City Connect unis were tops, amirite?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Wait, no

12:21

I'm not sure if it was just the pictures they released, but the orange on those pictures is awful

and the G is terrible.

Jon

12:23

Durran getting the call tonight. Steamer has him hitting 262/315/384. Over or under in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Over. I think Duran's hurt by us not having much data

Sum

12:23

it's the same reason we use mph for pitch speed.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I know what 90 mph means. It's the fastest I got my old Ford Tempo. I have no instant place marker to peg 40 meters per second

Or about 90

The speedometer on that Ford only went up to 85, but I had it pointing to a vague area quite a bit past the 85

Oddball Herrera

12:25

When are the zips projections for my beer league softball team coming out? I want to brag about my predicted .150 OPS

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I'm gonna project that everyone has as fun time

Babip Roberts

12:25

Can they just make the damn ball a few ounces heavier? Fewer dingers, fewer strikeouts, everyone goes home happy!

Guest

12:26

A baseball with 2500 RPM thrown 90 mph will make 16.67 revolutions pitcher to catcher. A baseball with 2750 RPM thrown 90 mph will make 18.33 revolutions.

Steve O

12:26

Hard to grasp that 1.67 revolutions makes that much difference

Mike

12:26

Why was zips so low on the Redsox?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Super worried what happens if htey lose a couple pitchers

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