JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/2/2020

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

SORRY I'M LATE I WAS MAKING MITCH HANIGER JOKES ON TWITTER

Jon

12:02

I tried to make a model to project break outs and I had zero luck. Any suggestions for a beginner?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Project Arkanoid, it was a more successful Break Out!

Sorry.

It may be that you don't have sufficient variables in your model to identify breakouts.

Chris

12:03

What do you make of manfreds comments about never intending to play more than 60 games? Seems like a dumb thing for a lawyer facing a grievance to say

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Rob Manfred didn't even say the quiet part loud.

Rob Manfred said the thing that you shouldn't say quietly to yourself, at 2 AM, in the bathroom, in the dark, after you're the only person left on the planet, ever, at all.

Duchess

12:04

At this point is Judge basically just an average player, when figuring in risk?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Not long-term!

Jon

12:04

Could be a coincidence, but I've seen Zips be more optimistic this year on quite a few players than other projections. Is there anything to that?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Hard to say. I don't run other projection systems, so can't say precisely where they differ on certain guys

Nick

12:05

Long time listener, first time chatter. Is an arepa a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

So long as they're no hinge

Dbo

12:05

Happy pre-fourth weekend everyone! What’s your favorite firework Dan? M-80?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

roman candles

12:06

We used to have this lacrosse stick that was missing the top part with the net so it was just a hollow aluminum stick

That way, you could put fireworks in the boomstick and aim them while holding them

Amazingly, we never had an injury.

The BEST firework

Was when we got this giant, $30 firework called invasion at normandy

12:07

The thing lasted FOREVER and had little parachute men and everything

We lit them off at the baseball field at riderwood elementary and had to take off because we attracted the cops attention

My friend's dad used to drive to NC with our orders and come back with his minivan packed to the brim with explosives.

12:08

I once almost hit some stoners with a roman candle so my friends called me The DEA for about a year

TomBruno23

12:08

Dan, does Chris Sabo have the least amount of PA/IP for an AS who played for the Cardinals? 14 PA for the great 1995 Cardinals.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

He was way down there but I don't think he was the winner.

12:10

Second to least PA

the least PA was Doug DeCinces.

Jon

12:10

What happened to Lewis Brinson's power last year?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

He still hit power in the minors

it' sjust in the majors, he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat

Adam

12:10

Which is more likely: one of last year's last-place teams wins their division, or one of last year's division champs finishes fifth?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

former

I can see miami, pittsburgh, or san diego winning their divisions as WAY more likely than any of the division winners being last

Adam Dawson

12:11

Evan White or Ryan Mountcastle? Do you think both play this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Mountcastle. Who knows? But teams should be palying them.

Justin

12:12

A prospect like Nick Gonzales confuses me. Clear reports of good bat speed along with low exit velocity. What is the mechanism by which a high velocity bat would lead to low velocity hits? Maybe the bat just isnt actually fast?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Bad contact? Generally speaking, I don't worry about descriptions too much until we have data

Justin

12:12

Am I wrong in thinking that a team like the Pirates should sell out for defense in this weird year? Would I be right in thinking that a low scoring environment lends itself to higher variance seasons? As in... raise their probability of playoffs but also raise their probability of getting a top pick?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

The problem is defense itself is kinda volatile.

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