JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/20/23

Dan Szymborski

12:01

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/e86a78a7-713d-4d6b-8a93-4fad86923866

12:02

Dan, how does ZiPS like Orelvis Martinez moving forward after his breakout season this year (so far)?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Martinez is back to pretty much where his projection was - ZiPS was already aggressive with him

12:03

His projection really fell off in the earl going, but he's been much better last couple months

Kyle

12:06

Outside of the big names being thrown around (Ohtani/Soto) which players that will be available at the deadline do you think would best help the Phillies?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Outside of the big names, it gets unimpressive quickly!

12:07

I could see the Phillies landing Goldschmidt, if he's actually available

I'm still not sure psychologically who the Cards actually are willing to trade without a ROFLCopter offer

Cito's Mustache

12:08

Buxton seems to be in a bad place. Who do you prefer ROS, Buxton or say Brian De La Cruz

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Still Boxton

brad

12:08

Random q that's maybe better asked of EL but you're here so... is an 80 grade pitching prospect possible, especially given modern decreasing workloads and injury risk, and ifso, what would one look like? Young Clemens without an injury history?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Maybe Strasburg?

12:09

I think the hard part is that workload is tricky; can any prospect actually establish they're truly durable?

And if nobody can ever be an 80, should that be the standard of 80?

But as you note, this is a question for Eric and people who directly use the system, rather than my ideals!

Retired WFT Fan

12:09

Do you believe in Kyle Bradish?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Moderately so

Run Flagstaff

12:09

Should Elly De La Cruz maybe be back in the minors? wRC+ of 99 with bad plate discipline/swing decisions

Dan Szymborski

12:11

No. He destroyed minor league pitching and needs to learn these things in the majors. The Reds are surprisingly deep offensively, but he's still a very good option

GoBarves

12:11

Dan, been loving the in-season ZiPS gainers/decliners articles! Suuuuper helpful to see which performances actually move the needle for the your computer! Appreciate you and your work!

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Thanks!

Cito's Mustache

12:11

Hunter Brown has has a rough go lately. Who do you like ROS, Brown or Cobb?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Cobb

but I'm a fan of healthy Cobb

Daniel

12:11

Since developing ZiPS, what is the biggest surprise/insight did you get about a team? (ie The biggest difference in your analysis/perception and ZiPS projection that made you change your view?)

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I can't say which team

But the early years of ZiPS definitely showed me that I needed to project depth in a meaningful way

12:12

Which is what motivated my methodology, which really tries to do this

GoBarves

12:12

Any data on Pfaadt from ZiPS? Is he going to show up on the pitcher decliner list or is his cup of coffee worth throwing out like lukewarm office drip? Or shall we hold for that premium pour over he was looking like in the PCL last year?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

He is going to still have a good projection, but he's on the decliners list.

Guest

12:12

Given the burdensome contracts of LeMahieu, Stanton and Rizzo, what should/could the Yankees do to right the ship for 2024?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I actually think they're at the point in which a retool is necessary

I think there are enough holes now that they can't just slap on another coat of paint around Judge

Guest

12:13