JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/20/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

firing a GM doesn't really do anything if the replacement is just going to run the team in the same way, whether it's their choice or it's driven by ownership

Chip

12:15

If the Yankees fired Brian Cashman and put you in charge, are you buying, selling, or holding at the TD?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Sell

John

12:16

What do you think it would cost the Cards to acquire a pitcher like Cease?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

You'd have to start with Winn and a lot more

2.5 years of Cease is a lot

I'm really going to get reamed for this, but I'd offer more for Cease than I would for Ohtani

Dave

12:16

maybe i'm overthinking this and confusing myself but is there anything inherently wrong with the fact that all advanced defensive stats (as far as i'm aware) are always presented as compared to league average and there's no real "raw" stats to use to isolate a single player's year over year changes. thinking that a player could see big swings in OPS+ due to league environment changes but you could see their .850 OPS three years in a row and maybe they didn't change but the league did. meanwhile an objectively league average 2B defender would see a huge drop in defensive stats if every team decided to play their SS at 2B instead, but there's no "raw" defensive stats to see your "league average" 2B is the same defender, just in a different league environment.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think you're overthinking and the cues are in the question themselves.

12:18

*If* there was an unrealistic scenario like this, there could be a problem, but this kind of thing would be self-correcting quickly, even in the astronomically unlikely scenario in which it matters

Imagine everyone moves their 1B to SS

How long do you think that would last, even if the average 1B as an average SS is a league average defender at short?

12:19

Even if the relative value was the same, fans and teams can easily see the rates at which those first basestops were turning plays was far far lower than it previously was

12:20

The thing is, *most* statistical things break down in implausible scenarios because they're designed to work in plausible ones.

It's a bit like worrying that evolution is broken because sex in space might not work properly

Like, well, of course sex in space might not work properly because there was no way that we evolved to that point

12:21

It's not a flaw; you'd just have to find another solution

SalisburySteak

12:21

If you were Mike Elias, what move(s) would you try to make right now? Who would you target, and who would you be willing to give up?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

We just talked about Cease and I'd love the O's to go after him

12:22

I'd certainly give up Westburg + for him and I've been stanning for Westburg for years now

Sam

12:22

Ignoring injuries and stuff at what % playoff odds should a team decide to be sellers.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I don't think you can set a hard number like this

12:23

It depends on the realistic short-term goals of the situation and their recent success and lots and lots of other factors

Ken

12:24

Hey Dan, love the 2024 most improved series. Has Jarren Duran's stock improved much or is ZiPS not really buying it yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

It's improved, but not enough to go nuts about yet - ZiPS is taking a pretty good chunk off his proejction

Tim

12:24

Even the Strider updated projection seems a little low. What's holding him back? Injury risk? Or just not enough track record yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Top pitcher projections always seem low because they include a substantial amount of risk baked into the cake

Josiah

12:24

if the angels decide to move Shohei, and dodgers offer best package, should angels take it or are the optics just too much to overcome?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

They should in this case, but I'm nto sure they do

I got the blues

12:25

Hi Dan, I have D Varsho at C. Is it time to cut bait yet? 5x5 roto, 1 C league

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I'm still moderately optimistic about him

Yankees fandom

12:25

Talk us off a ledge here, Dan. And none of that backhanded Orioles fan sass even though you're enjoying the novelty of it all.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I mean, the Yankees are in list, but they're still above .500 even with all the crap

12:26

This team would be leading the Central divsiions, I think

Theo be Praised

12:26

Is Trey Mancini toast? And in general, how do you determine if an aging player is slumping a bit, or toast, or turning golden brown?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Well, you'd have to take a bite, but I don't think the MLBPA likes that

I'm quite worried though.

12:28

The thing about Mancini was that he really was only all that good in one season

And then he got shut down due to his fight with cancer

Which is amazing

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