JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/20/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:43

For those who don't rmeember, my cats frigging love these

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Cat-Toys-Interactive-Feather-Wand-Kitten-Re...

Long pole, long fishing line

12:44

The catlets tend to chomp through the elastic string on most fishing poles very quickly. And I like the detachable "lures" so that the whole thing isn't binned when they maul one of the lures

Key Flaw

12:44

If you had a great pitching but bad hitting team vs a bad pitching but great hitting team, which one will have more of a chance of winning (assuming same levels of good and bad)? Like, is the variance in hitting or pitching around "good" and "bad" more acceptable for a club?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I have no idea where to find it now as I did the look on usenet like 15 years ago, but I found zero difference

(I used league ranks)

Ben

12:45

Any middle infielders stand out as trade fits for the Giants? Crawford is having another down year at the plate, is currently on the IL, and is on an expiring contract. Estrada is on the IL as well. Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely haven't exactly run away with those jobs as fill-ins.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

it's too bad Tim Anderson has bombed

12:46

Unfortunately, outside of the top couple of players, I think this is going to be a downer of a deadline

12:47

There are too many teams in contention and most of the teams not in contention have already bled off most of their talent

And the Rockies won't trade players like McMahon

C-Low

12:48

Metrics seem to be down on Rutschman's defense. Aside from his caught stealing numbers being poor, what has been the biggest culprit?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Well, his framing hasn't matched last year's stats. But in any case, people should rarely panic about one year defensive stats

12:49

(or celebrate)

OAA is only slightly less volatile, for example (though that's not relevant for Adley)

Generally speaking, I'd probably shy away from loooong contracts from catchers who are very framing based

(note that's not Adley of course)

12:50

Because I still think computer balls/strikes is going to come surprisingly quickly

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:50

That scenario is Ryan Doumit being unframed out of being a catcher, and the defensive variance of catchers disappearing overnight. Other catchers didn't get worse at framing, but it simply made them less valuable in comparison to their improving peers.

Blibbs

12:50

Aaron Judge just ran the bases yesterday...and Stanton pulled a hammy watching him...

GoBarves

12:50

Any chance we'll get a ZiPS Top 100 midseason update?? (Pretty pleaaaase)

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I may do an update in August or even trade deadline week

12:51

depending

Blibbs

12:51

Dan, how do you think fantasy baseball players should handle discrepancies between "real life" production like ERA, HR, etc. and expected statistics when evaluating a player's potential for the remainder of the year? Thank you

Dan Szymborski

12:51

When the expected statistics drastically effect fantasy-tracked stats, they should take them very seriously

RTJ

12:52

has there ever been a team with a winning record with as much public perception of how bad they are than the Yankees right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I don't even know how to measure that! lol I'm sure Mets would be somewhere on that list

(not these Mets, but some Mets teams)

(since these Mets do not have a winning record)

12:53

The Yankees definitely "feel" worse than they are

Guest

12:53

How much longer does someone like Vlad Jr have to perform at simply an above-average level before projection systems no longer view him as an elite hitter?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Depends if his advanced metrics hold up

Guest

12:53

Given what might be the beginning of Trout's decline years, no more SBs, and health issues, if someone offered you Elly for Trout straight up in a dynasty league, would you do it? I love trades where both owners would be terrified that they could end up looking like total idiots

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I don't think I would because there's a great deal of associated risk with Trout

and it, of course, depends on the dynasty keeper terms

JWR

12:54

Loving your recent articles and have an idea for another article...posting Cody Bellinger's future projections at various dates over the last four years. I imagine that few players have seen their projections roller coaster more than Bellinger during that time. Care to predict what he will get in the offseason as a free agent?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I may do something on himi next month

JWR

12:54

The rumbles in Chicago is that Matt Mervis is a 4A player, as he failed his MLB trial earlier this year, even though he hit before the trial and is hitting again in AAA. But do we have any sense of what type of player is in fact a 4A player? Or should we trust that Mervis' AAA production will eventually translate to the majors if given more rope?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

People who make that judgment in 90 PA shouldn't have their judgments ever trusted

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