JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/22/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:30

In some cases, yes.

In others, there's a sense of job preservation and PR, I think.

Guest

12:30

Cody Bellinger: fun in a video game, sure, and still a phenomenal runner and defender. Will he make solid contact ever again? And at a high enough rate to, say, crack 3 WAR at least?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I remain optimistic

12:31

Dan, I'm curious to learn more about how ZiPS views Kevin Smith long term after seeing your Jays/Cubs trade proposal.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Sees him with a really good shot at peaking as a 3 WAR guy. He's a bit old of a prospect at this tpoint.

I think people are slightly *too* excited

12:32

He's been awesome this year in half a year and I'd be very happy with him on the team

Fat Spielberg

12:32

Why do so many people think the Mets need to trade for Josh Donaldson? If you look at the player position by team rankings on the FG leaders pages, you see that the Mets have the 12th most WAR at 3B of any team, which is actually their BEST ranking this year (tied with Catcher.)

Dan Szymborski

12:33

There's a difference between what happened before and what comes next.

And the reason I like Bryant is because he's a LF option as well

jaysfan9293

12:33

any thoughts on how the rule-5 draft affects the jays' strategy at the deadline? you mentioned in your trades article that the jays' middle-infield depth could push them to trade from that strength, but in a macro-sense how do you think they handle pending rule-5 eligibility for several of their better ifa signings (as well as minor league breakouts like kevin smith and samad taylor) while balancing the thinness of their system outside of the top7-8 prospects? (for what it's worth, I still think smith + groshans + hiraldo is way too high for kimbrel unless the cubs are paying for his option year, but I don't see why the jays can't just pay him themselves, or why they're forking over so much when their window hasn't really opened up yet)

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Honestly, I haven't given much thought to rule 5 strategy in this case, but perhaps I should.

(and it's OK to disagree with me, of course)

ZiPS is more on your side than mine I think; it loves Groshans

I do see the Jays doing *something* at the deadline that improves the team in 2022.

As opposed to a rental.

Cool Papa Bell

12:35

So many questions about that picture. Why is Santa pooping and basically larger than his body?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

THATS HIS BAG OF WHITE SOX

ZacktoZackWalks

12:35

Did you pick anything up on the steam summer sale?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I didn't, actually!

I'm trying to make a conscious effort to not inflate my Steam library TOO much

12:36

Since I already need to live longer than I am going to actually live in order to play everything

Look at this horror ratio.

https://steamdb.info/calculator/76561197999587301/?cc=us

Chamaco

12:37

The mobile site has been pretty buggy these days. Help?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I know there have been some reports.

But I don't know the current status as I'm not a programming dude.

Re: Nats

12:37

The return on your proposed Scherzer return seemed a little light. Nats org is generally reluctant to sell (even moreso for a player as significant to the franchise), and the team seems to target upside in the minors

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Which is why I don't think he'll get traded.

12:38

There's a big difference between two months and two months with a whole extra contending year kicker

Appa Yip Yip

12:38

I think the issue with Kimbrel is a combination of his contract and his more recent struggles, so while yes he is an elite reliever he's also being paid like an elite reliever with a chance he'll turn into an 18 million dollar pumpkin next year if his option vests, which it likely will. There's just not much surplus value there and a decent helping of risk, and teams love them some payroll flexibility. I think cubs fans will be very disappointed in the return and we're all still treating the Chapman deal like it wasn't a unicorn.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I'm just more confident than most, it appears.

He's not having just a great year, he's basically having a vintage Kimbrel year.

12:41

13th best contact rate for pitcher with 20 IP since 2002

Thunderclap Jackson

12:41

As a dejected ATL fan, what team should I adopt to maximize fun for the rest of the season now that my sweet daddy Ron has been lost? Leaning Blue Jays right now

Dan Szymborski

12:41

The Brewers are a lot of fun

And the Rays are always entertaining as the A-Team of baseball

12:42

You lock the Rays in a warehouse and they're going to piece together three relievers and a makeshift bazooka that will make your car go over a cliff and burst into flames.

brad penny for your thoughts

12:42

do you consider yourself a workaholic? i'm concerned you might be addicted to workahol

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