JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/22/21

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Re: Nats

12:57

Then why posit a trade you don't think one of the teams would accept? In that case, let's send Jacob DeGrom to the Rockie for Trevor Story and Zac Veen. I mean, what are we doing here?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

The idea is to construct what a fair trade *would* look like.

Do you think DeGrom for Story and Veen is a fair trade?

Guest

12:58

Keith Richards came up with the riff to satisfaction in his sleep and recorded it, along with 45 minutes of snoring.

Guest

12:58

Just wanted to let someone know that I've been having an issue with reading Fangraphs articles in Safari on mobile--every article I've read for the past week has had to be reloaded at least once because of some error. Not sure if others are experiencing the same.

Morlock Jimenez

12:58

We, rightfully, rag on the HOF voting around here, but is it time to change the MVP voting? Why not let all the sportswriters vote?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I think we're getting better MVP/Cy results than the HoF vote has.

With these, since they're assigned by the chapter heads, you can ostensibly pick people that are likely to do a good job and take it seriously.

1:00

That's not foolproof of course; it's absurd that Jay still hasn't gotten to vote in a year-end award

He's been in BBWAA longer than me and I'm voting my fourth time this year (RoY NL)

Dave

1:00

What's the best projection a complete non-prospect has ever received?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Hmm

1:01

I'm wondering if there's a way to check this

ZiPS loved Nelson Cruz even when he stopped being considered a prospect across baseball, but I'm not sure that's the *best*

1:02

(And I won't try to be clever and use non-prospect to mean that established players count, making Mike Trout the best projection for a non prospect)

AJ Preller

1:04

Confidence in Hosmer is eroding, he might be nothing more than a PH or DH in the World Series. Would MacKenzie Gore for Freeman & Morton be fair?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Honestly, there are so many questions around Gore right tnow that I'd say no

Thunderclap Jackson

1:04

Is there such a thing as too tall for a batter? Hypothetically assuming stable Mike Trout-level swing athleticism and bat control as you shoot a player with a GROW-RAY, where is the point where the player is just too tall to cover their strike zone?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I think at extreme heights, arm extension and batters box become an issue

1:05

make a player large enough and good pitches are all going to be in on their hands

A wendigo would be an awful hitter

Johnny5Alive

1:05

Re: Donaldson to mets and past doesnt mean thats what will happen moving forward. In your mock you have Bryant to the Mets which would help because of the positional flexibility, even if the Mets offense has recently gotten going. But don't they really need a pitcher? I don't see that coming from the Cubs. Would you rather try to get Story + Gray?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I'd love to see the Mets land Gray

I'm not sayin gthese are the only trades out there! But if I write 20,000 words, Meg will murder me.

And I don't think I gave away anything for Bryant that would be necessary to land a pitcher

(I expect a Mets pitcher trade to be more boring though)

dazed

1:07

how is it that the nats can have playoff odds lower than the mariners and cardinals, and yet buying still seems like a distinct possibility?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

The games behhind is a bit of a trap

Re: Nats

1:07

Likelihood Story or Baez is playing somewhere other than SS after the deadline?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I'll say 80% on Story, 60% on Baez

1:08

The Rockies *should* be approaching 100% on Story, but I can't have any confidence in the front office.

They're really known as a tough team to trade with

Their valuations of players are just odd.

1:09

I've had multiple FO people exasperated about that (not for attribution tho)

Oklahomabrave

1:09

You’re one of the few I’ve seen maintain Bryan Reynolds could be had in a trade. Wouldn’t he make a ton of sense for my Braves as a push this year and filling a hole next year(s)?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

I think the price will be steep though.

Pirates strike me as more likely to move Frazier.

1:10

But I think it's *possible*. But you'd have to bowl them over.

And the Braves farm system is not as deep as it was three years ago

Curious

1:10

Is there any research you know of looking at win % after the trade deadline of teams that are sellers? I would assume that their win % goes down as they deal off their best assets, but don't have any hard evidence to back that up.

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