JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/24/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/24/25

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Lowe Distribution System

12:29

How does ZiPS project W/L for pitchers? Tons of things outside the pitcher's performance make substantial differences. Does it know about run support? Bullpen quality? Whether the pitcher goes deep into games?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Does knwo all these things!

SeanP

12:29

If you were Mike Elias, would you sell high on Trevor Rogers? Or keep him in the hopes of re-tooling for next season?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

IF the package is high enough

12:30

I don't think I'd trade him though. I think the O's need any pitching they can get, and I can't imagine someone would give them someone *better* for 2026 than Rogers woudl be

Guest

12:30

Two more home runs for Spencer Jones today. I had written him off last year because of the strikeouts. What does ZiPS think now?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Check out the ZiPS prospect update article!

HiDan

12:30

is the software development life cycle for ZIPS a formalized process or are you flying mostly by the seat of your pants? I imagine since you've been doing it for so long you have a very good idea of how long certain steps of developing/testing/deploying ZIPS takes, but I'm curious if you have some layer of project management over it

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Oh, we're full chaotic

12:31

I don't have competent management over "any" aspect of my life

As I must remind you all, there's a line in my hallway near the kitchen were I was going to finish painting...17 years ago

laughing

1

12:32

My large basement office has a very "Leslie Knope's house" feel

Lowe Distribution System

12:32

Will anyone the Orioles acquire when they sell at the deadline contribute 0.5 WAR for them in 2026? 2027? In other words, can they acquire anyone who will help them win in the Gunnar/Adley era?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I think it's very possible

Bruce Boisclair, Jr.

12:34

The new rules have brought back base stealing, but the pitchout hasn't returned. Why is that?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

The problem is that the math still doesn't work great

Unless you are AMAZING at predicting when guys actually run

12:36

Last I checked, MLB, was around 20% in pitchouts actually having an attempted stolen bae

So 80% of the time, unless Jeff Francoeur is batting, you're adding a ball to a count

Which is actually a pretty big deal

https://tht.fangraphs.com/dynamic-run-value-of-throwing-a-strike-inste...

12:37

turning a base stolen *into* a caught stealing is about 0.6 runs

12:38

And the pitchout CS is closer to 50% generally, not 100%

HiDan

12:38

which cat has the best chance of carrying the ZIPS torch forward if you were hit by a bus?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Justinian since he's the most familiar with my PC

Sharp

12:39

Is Ozzie Albies cooked? He makes terrible swing decisions. I don't know what the Braves should do about him.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I wouldn't say cooked, but he's looking par-boiled

Idiotic Failson

12:39

Who could hit a baseball further, Hulk or the Ultimate Warrior?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Ultimate Warrior

but he'd get winded by the time he got to first

The Oriole Bird

12:39

How optimistic are you (or ZiPS) about Rutschman post-IL stint?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

decently so

Bob Myick

12:39

ZIPs made a pretty good call on Brett Baty's value this season. What do you think he is going forward? A useful guy on a good team/starter on a bad team? Can he be more than that?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think he is what he is. A decent starter for a while, but not someone who is foundational to the team, and you wouldn't mind moving him if something better comes along

War2d2

12:41

On the national broadcast last week Adam Wainwright was extolling the virtues of Mitch Keller, calling him an ace and saying that anyone that gets him at the trade deadline would be getting a top of the rotation starter. My question: has Wainwright had an aneurism, and should his family intervene?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I mean, it's not QUITE as crazy as it seems

Chris Jaffe found some years ago that historically, the typical ace had an ERA+ of about 125, IIRC.

and Keller's at 121 right now!

12:42

Now, he doesn't have a 125 ERA+ *projection* going forward

but it's not like he called Andre Pallante an ace or something

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