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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/24/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:54

such as baseball construction

12:55

The only exception really is 2021 projections, where I basically HAD to guess the consequences of 2020,

Ross

12:56

Nate Dohm, Yoniel Curet, Joe Mack

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Gonna say mac, Curet, dohm

Michael Jones

12:56

What is it about the projections systems I'm seeing that don't just have the Braves as what they are currently, a completely washed team that stinks for the rest of this season. Obviously no system has them making the playoffs, but basically all I see have them playing at or above .500 baseball the rest of this season and this team is horrific with completely broken players and a pitching staff that's all hurt. What am I missing?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

That nothing is as bad as it looks when things are going bad or vice versa

We always have things like this

12:57

After 2024, when projections thought the Blue Jays woudl bounce back, the question was why didn't projection systems know the Jays were broken

Coming into 2024 it was why didn't projection systems know the Yankees and Mets and Cardinals were broken

12:58

The thing is, recentism is VERY hard for people to avoid, even serious fans

War2d2

12:58

What does ZIPS think of Matt Shaw for the rest of the season? He was so bad for a while there, but is on a heater right now. If you were in Jed’s shoes would you trust that enough to give up on trying for Suarez and instead put all your prospect eggs in a Joe Ryan-shaped basket?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

A bit of a bounceback, but I wouldn't have trouble trading for Suarez and having less Shaw this year

Michael Jones

12:59

Is Michael Harris cooked long term?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

That's a pretty quick diagnosis for a *24* year old who has had three very good seasons in the majros before now

Key Flaw

12:59

You are given supreme power and can change the name of one team in the AL and one in the NL to anything you want. Do you go silly, historical, better, trollish? Which ones do you change and to what?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

You guys should know me, I go trollish

1:00

I don't know WHICH trollishness I'd do though

Now non trollishness, I'd really want to change the Rays

1:01

I think they made so many poor choices. When you have the choice between the DEVILS part of your name and the RAYS OF SUNSHINE part of your name, the former has way more fun potential than the other

1:02

but here's the thing, when you go with the sun as your name

go for the RED GIANT version of the sun, that's going to boil off the planet's oceans and eventually kill everything remaining

not the laidback sunglasses and mojito sun

1:04

the Phoenix Suns have a FAR more threatening sun than the Rays do. The Rays just have that little twinkles

Gilberto

1:04

In the 400 HR club, Eugenio Suarezz would at least rate higher than Dave Kingman.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

the 400 HR club guys under 50 WAR are Jason Giambi, Ruy Teixeira, Carlos Delgado, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Canseco, Nelson Cruz, Alfonso Soriano, Juan Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion who I totally forgot was in the club, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Dave Kingman

1:06

errr MARK Teixeira

Key Flaw

1:06

Maryland convenience store questions: Growing up in MD I always had Highs and 7-11 and occasionally Wawa, but Royal Farms was really something near me. So my questions for you are: 1)What convenience stores did you have growing up?, 2) What is your go-to MD convenience store, and 3) Can Royal Farms please stop their attempts at making RoFo happen? It would be RoFa anyway, but no one says it and it clearly is a marketing gimmick dreamed up by executives trying to be hip.

Dan Szymborski

1:08

I lived off Kenilworth drive near the mall there, so the closest convenience stores to me were the 7-11 at Bellona and York next to Ocean Pride and Kim's Karate and the Royal Farms on Thornton Road (near Stoneleigh Elementary). So those are the two I went to the most

And when I'm in Baltimore, I'm at Royal Farms more often than not

I did not know that RoFo was a thing and I wish I hadn't

1:09

I have very little High's experience

there used to be one in the same shopping center as China Moon on Ridgely but that one I don't think has been there for 30 years

I still get food from China Moon every time I'm in town. Best fried rice anywhere.

1:10

This is a lot of very specific north suburb Baltimore talk, so I hope SOMEONE here is from or in Baltimore

kwabbit

1:10

Speaking of Mitch Keller, his best season by xERA was 2019 (3.51), in which he realized a 7.13 ERA and a .475 BABIP against over 11 starts. Has to be one of the unluckiest stretches in recent history.

Dan Szymborski

1:11

Yeah, it's weird to still have to note to people sometimes "Hey, you know, a .475 BABIP isn't a thing for a pitcher"

Guest

1:11

could you do very crude pre-statcast ev estimates from grainy video, or would they be too crude to say anything (Joe Carter hit that ball anywhere from 91 to 121 mph!)

Dan Szymborski

1:11

It wuld be pretty bad

Key Flaw

1:11

In honor of Hulk Hogan, when I was a kid I loved Randy Savage and could do a crappy impression of him (I could never get a Hulk Hogan impression down). If you were give the ability to do a spot on impression of any pro wrestler, who would it be?

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