JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:03

Sorry I was slightly late, was finishing up my yearly trade dictator piece.

Kyle

12:03

Hey Dan! With Manfred staying on as commissioner thru another round of CBA negotiations, do you think we are headed toward another lockout? Missed games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I suspect we always were headed towards a less than smooth CBA after this one expires, but way too soon to tell if it results in missed games.

12:04

On a fundamental level, the things that players are really unhappy about really haven't changed all that much.

Luxury tax threshold still grow slower than inflation and slower than MLB's revenue growth.

Takao

12:04

Bryce Miller for Jonathan India - which team says no?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I think Mariners actually, simply because I dont' think they're psychologically at the point at which they'll move young pitching.

Ben

12:05

Did you do a ZiPS/Futures Game article this year? I always liked reading those and didn't see one come through.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I didn't as I had other midseason stuff on my plate to do this time around. I'll probably have some kind of minor league projection update before the end of the season

Oddball Herrera

12:06

My depression prediction: The Giolito trade from last night is this deadline's biggest one

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I certainly hope not!

Kim Ng Supporter

12:07

The Marlins have traded for about 5 second basemen in the past 3 years. Are they still somehow the best fit for a Jonathan India trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I dunno, I think Mariners as mentioned above ought to have the most interest

cool

1

but I don't think they're interested in parting with someone who is contributing right now

Their position in the playoff race is kinda precarious and I think they'd be far more willing to trade prospects

Ssssss

12:08

All these buyers can keep their grubby little paws off Belli. Cubs hard or soft buyers?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I'm still not sure exactly whether the Cubs are buyers or sellers right now.

TjF167

12:08

Is it good for baseball that so many teams are at least claiming a stance of being "buyers "? Is that worth the increased # of playoff rounds?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm not sure it's necessarily great for baseball or bad for baseball. Seems pretty neutral as most people hightly into trade deadline are the highly interested-already fans.

A Wasteland

12:09

With the recent trade, the only prospect LAA has in the top-100 is O'Hoppe...who has only failed to exhaust his eligibility due to significant injury.

This is a hell of a way to entire the post-Ohtani era.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

More playoffs means more teams that are buyers, but more playoffs also mean players have less impact on winning the division/league/WS, which can reduce the value of making those trades.

bob

12:09

Is Matt McClain really this good? Has the draft pedigree for sure, but reviews before this season didn't indicate this sort of breakout. Seems like a .280 20/20 type for years to come.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

130 wRC+ good? Probably not, but I think he's very good.

There was a huge disagreement between ZiPS and Steamer at the start of the year

76 wRC+ in Steamer, 103 in ZiPS, which is one of the bigger ones!

12:11

ZiPS had him as the #31 prospect

David

12:11

So If Giolito is fetching a top 100 prospect and an org top 10 guy, Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert would be most of a farm at this point right?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

You'll have to give up at least two top 100 guys I think to land either

Not a Sox fan

12:11

From an outside perspective… why in the world would the ChiSox not trade Cease? Huge seller’s market and they STINK. Only reasons against it are he’s not having his best season and their division is so bad they could sneak in next year? Do you think they should trade or hold?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I believe the White Sox have this deluded idea that staying the course will magically bounce them back in 2024

Royals

12:12

There really is no plan here, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

No good plan, at least.

They fired Dayton Moore, but they didn't fire his way of thinking

Like when Darth Vader would "fire" an admiral

12:14

Just because you "fire" Admiral Ozzel doesn't mean that Admiral Piett has new ideas

cool

2

Northside

12:14

Cubs are really on the bubble. Should Jed sell?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I think it depends on the particulars of the offers

If they're underwhelming, I'd try to be more aggressive and buy

12:15

but if teams are offering the farm and the bank that owns the loan on the farm's land and the bank's parent company, I might want to sell

Flat Gamin

12:15

2d graphics would be called FLAT GAMIN

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