JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/27/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

Wait, what?

Cris E

12:15

So maybe the Twins just needed a massive life-threatening biblical heat wave to get the bats going. Why didn't their front office do this earlier? (Sorry, just caught up in all the Hate The FO online energy. Can they do anything right, etc etc etc.)

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Camera switches to Thad Levine looking at his coal holdings and laughing

ROS

12:16

Where can I find the best description of how the ROS projections are formed for ZIPS ROS / ZIPS DC ROS? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

From me presumably?

12:17

ZiPS ROS is the daily updated projections for the rest of the season, with a simpler model than the big year-to-year one (for practical reasons, it takes more than a day to run a full set of projections)

ZiPS DC ROS is pro-rated to the depth chart

Zip zip zoop

12:17

How bad would Ozzie Albies’ lefty hitting have to get before you would want to see him go full righty? I’ve always held firm that even when he’s in one of his frustrating ruts as a lefty, it still beats watching the inevitable RvR sliders he would be chasing

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I don't think he's near that point

David

12:19

If a team has even an eensy bit of a chance to make it to the postseason, why would they sell for prospects who (prospects being what they are) may never make it to the majors and have only a very eensy chance of becoming an impact player?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Because, on a fundamental level, due to the playoff structure, baseball rewards quantity of playoff appearances rather than quality of the team in any given playoff appearance

Monly

12:19

Dan, can you please help me understand team discrepancies in wOBA and xwOBA? For example, the Reds players seem to have larger than average discrepancies across the board where their expected stats are much worse than their "real" stats.

Follow up...is this a function of park factors? Thank you

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I don't calculate xwOBA, so it's hard to say, though that's certainly a possibility

zStats in ZiPS *are* park-neutral

KCbbq

12:21

With Giolito being traded to the Angles what happens to Silseth? Is he out of a job and headed back to AAA?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

He'll be in relief at least

12:22

I think the Angels ought to prioritize certainty right now

Cris E

12:22

I suppose it should have been obvious that if Arte was going to stay in then the Angels weren't going to burn down anything. But it would still be interesting to hear the story behind the sea change yesterday night. Any chance this works out for them or is it all window dressing for signing the unicorn this winter?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

My belief is that they werent' blown away by the packages offered for Ohtani

The reality is that any player, no matter how absurdly awesome, has a limit on value in two months

Aaron Boone

12:23

What are the odds we turn things around with Judge back on Friday? If we don't will I lose my job??

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Judge being back and healthy is huge, of course, but I think Boone's gone if the Yankees don't make the playoffs

and the team has a number of problems that Judge can't fix

Guest

12:24

Hey Dan, what do you think of Royals prospect, outfielder River Town? Hitting over .400 and walks a ton, rarely strikes out. Got some speed, a solid arm. Looks like a Cal Stevenson +++ to me, was hoping to get some insight after Eric didn't write much on him in the Royals Prospect Write-Up. Fairly surprising since many Royals fans consider him a solid prospect.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I don't think he's that much of a prospect honestly

Guys that get a huge amount of their value from walks isn't a good thing as a prospect

Those guys tend to wash out somewhere on the way to the majors

12:25

he has little power and little time in center

He's like Nick Madrigal super-lite

Skim Nick Madrigal

Yo-Yo

12:26

Between Montgomery, Flaherty, Dejong, Stratton, Verhagen, and possibly Hicks (if the reported extension falls through), will STL get back enough prospect capital to build a cromulent pitching staff next season? They need a complete overhaul, and with dwindling payrolls in recent years compared to league spending, I'm not sure they can do it.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't think they can do it that quickly without some spending in free agency

It's not the flashiest group of pitchers

Alex

12:26

I'm contemplating adding more fun in my life. What do you think about me replacing my mouth wash bottle with a squirt gun pistol?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I'm sure there are more places to add fun than tooth brushing time

Why not use a squirt gun as a condiment dispenser?

Too many Mooks