JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/10/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:13

Yeah

Giolito was a good pickup -- that doesn't appear to be working out

But the rest was lackluster

12:14

I mean Cron? He hasn't been good in two years

Anyone really think Grichuk was going to keep it up?

Hopeless Drury Fan

12:14

Thanks for the chat today Dan!
For the past 3 years (nearly 1,000 PA), Brandon Drury has posted a xwOBA 30+ points lower than his wOBA. Is this luck or a skill that's not captured well by xwOBA in your humble opinion?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I haven't worked with the predictive value of xwOBA since I do my own thing, but three years suggest some sort of skill

12:15

For example, ZiPS automatically takes zBABIP far less seriously with Paul Goldschmidt

12:18

zStats have done better with Drury

Aiden

12:18

What is the process for becoming a FanGraphs contributor?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

It varies

12:19

Every few years, we do have an open hiring process, which is the best bet for most

12:20

And for the others, fill a specific need

like when Kevin Goldstein left the Astros

tz

12:20

Would it be possible to do a ZiPS projection on Ozzie Albies, but only using his stats hitting right-handed?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

*probably* but I'm not really set up for it

fanoftheman

12:21

in the history of zips, what single change to your methodology made the biggest difference in improving the accuracy of the projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Revamping minor league translations in the late 00s

The first couple years I used James' MLE process

but it was really out of date

and I had a *lot* more data to work with than he did in 1984

fanoftheman

12:22

I know the Cardinals defense is bad, but what the heck is up with the babip they’re allowing? If the season ended today, they’d have the second worst non-Coors BABIP allowed since 2000. Some of that has to be bad luck, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

*Some* but there's a lot more Jordan Walker and a lot less Harrison Bader this year compared to last!@

James

12:22

Given Dana Brown's recent comments, what are the expectations for a Tucker extension? Would 9/250 be competitive?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I still have ZiPS open

12:24

ZiPS suggests 9/220

but I don't know if he would sign that

and guess he wouldn't

12:25

What's working against him is that he's a non-transcendent corner outfielder who is not hitting the market super yougn

Ethan

12:25

first, I wanted to cast a vote for ‘z’ stat leaderboards/more frequent updates. I find them very interesting to look at.
second, I was wondering if the batted ball data (specifically fly balls) is park adjusted in any capacity? Could environment help explain some of the zHR under and overachievers?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Yeah, I calculate zStats home and away and have park factors the same as regular players

Jose's Right Hook

12:25

Have you run ZiPS career projections for players that couldn't exist, just to see what they would look like? Talking about progressions for someone who hits .500, a batter who never strikes out, ect.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I've never really made up players in this way, though I guess I could

The Dorothy Zbornaks

12:26

Are we still doing a fantasy football league this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Hey SJ, yeah, I'll set it up this weekend

DD

12:26

Working on an article for my website:

Do you think that the banning of the shift has improved some players defensive metrics this season? (looking at Baez, Witt Jr., and Franco)...enough causation/correlation?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's *possible* but I haven't looked directly at it and I don't like to wild-guess

Colton

12:27

Do you have any advice for someone that is contemplating beginning a baseball writing blog of their own?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Don't write about numbers. Write stories that utilize numbers.

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