JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/13/20

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danfan69

12:19

we look back at players that were underappreciated in their time. what players in the game today do we underappreciate because of how we understand baseball in 2020?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Depends how you're defining the word.

I don't know what we're doing wrong in 2020, or else I'd not be doing it!

Mrpitcher

12:21

who has the best ROS outlook: glasnow, lamet, or marquez?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Marquez

Guest

12:21

Thoughts on David Bell this year? Between the lineups and in-game tactics, he’a been terrible IMO. Last night’s 9th was horrid. Related: how can I show the win probabilities relating to his moves to a friend? They’re on here somewhere, I just haven’t found in a clear format I can share.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I'm trying not to establish *any* thoughts about lineups/tactics this year because this one is such an odd one.

12:22

It would be like awarding Michelin stars based on which chefs cook the best omelet while sitting in a roller coaster car with a hotplate.

Jon

12:22

Is xBABIP a thing?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

The concept usually is! I do zBABIP, and I guess you guys can guess where the z is from!

James

12:22

What does ZiPS think Lemahieu’s next contract will look like? Which team do you think it will be with?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

ZiPS right now says 3/64. He *will* be a 32-year-old 2B, after all

lalo

12:23

Do you think Devers is a top 10 bat por the next 5 years ?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Purely as a bat? No.

Eric

12:25

At what point do we start to worry about Vlad Jr? He hits the ball on the ground far too often and now that he plays 1B only he brings no defensive value (not that he ever did)

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I'm already mildly worried.

For these reasons!

12:26

I like the questions that you guys also answer for me! We can do way more that way

James

12:26

Alec Bohm just got promoted apparently

Eric

12:26

Kevin Gausman, is this turnaround real? Can he be a reliable SP?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I've been touting him forever in breakout type pieces, so I'm not off the bandwagon now!

12:27

ZiPS had him as nearly the equal of Bumgarner this offseason as a pitcher

12:27

Is Alex Cobb really improved?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I dont' think he's truly been healthy as an Oriole. His splitter is looking like it did pre surgery

See! You! Later!

12:28

Is it to early to panic about Yelich?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Panic? Too early. Extreme concern? Maybe not.

12:29

He's somehow pulled off the feat of becoming more selective yet making worse contact

James

12:30

Is Cronenworth the Padres own Ben Zobrist lite?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It's so weird, he was like the perfect Ray in playe rtype!

12:31

Now, he's not THIS good, but there was reasonable evidence to think he could be a dynamite role player

Oddball Herrera

12:31

If the Mets and Phillies finish behind the Marlins I think relegation is in order

See! You! Later!

12:31

Any thoughts on the possibility of Bauer using pine tar or some other mixture to raise spin rate?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

As I said in the article, I only know what I can prove.

12:31

If he continues to hit like he has, do you think Nick Castellanos is likely to opt out of the remaining 3-years and $48 million on his Reds contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

At this point, I think it's likely, unless the economy looks REALLY awful in 3 months

Kyle

12:32

How long did it take Zips to realize Trout was the best player it had ever projected?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

He had the best ever rookie projection before 2012 and I believe the most projected WAR for any projection before 2013.

It's a little tricky in that I didn't project WAR for most of the 2000s. But I don't see anyone who comes close.

James

12:33

Is projected wRC+ the mean or median of the spectrum of possible outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's a little more complex, but ZiPS is generally the median

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