JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

It is noon!

STiVo

12:01

There are some prospects demolishing the minors (e.g., Wetherholt, Jones, Griffin). How high do you think ZiPS will be on those kinds of guys going into 2026?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

CHEATING!

trying to get some early projections! tsk tsk

sorry

Wetherhold ought to have a big number

12:02

Griffin's should be decent, but it's a lower level, so the awesomeness may not be *2026*

Lars

12:03

How many runs do you think a team would score if instead of nine innings of three outs it was one inning of 27 outs?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I dont' want to venture a guess, but generally speaking a LOT more

teams will simply come up with runners on base a ton of the time

and I think you'd grind down the opposing pitchers fairly quickly

12:04

Pitchers don't throw 120 pitch games anymore, but a 90-pitch inning, which is what this woudl be, would be a trianwreck

You'd actually stop using a rotation and go with all long relievers, I think

The Oriole Bird

12:05

In 172 games, Jackson Holliday has a wRC+ of 83 (93 in '25). How optimistic does ZiPS remain in his future performance?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Still fairly bullish

12:06

put it this way, imagine if he was a 21 year-old middle ifjnielder with a 115 wRC+ this year in Triple-A. Everyone would be excited about that performance

Garrett

12:06

I'm a Nationals fan and need to hear something positive about the team even though it's been a flawed, and still pending, rebuild. Can you cheer me up?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I'm still hopeful that the young offensive core will come around. A team that's good at something and horrible elsewhere is easier to build than a team that's mediocre all around

Todd Bonzalez

12:07

With Hayes at third and Steer at first, is it possible that the Reds might suddenly have the best defensive infield in the majors? Understanding that we might not yet know enough about Steer's ability to play 1B (though he's looked good). Or is Elly going to be too much of a negative in that regard moving forward for that to be possible?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

It's POSSIBLE simply because Hayes is so good, but I'm not sure that the rest is all that exciting. It's basically just saying Hayes is really good

Oaktown Blues

12:09

When a guy races through the minor leagues, does ZiPS see more possibility of improvement from their initial MLB performance compared to guys with lots of minor league data?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Not *specifically*

MLB Exec Burner

12:09

Using gut feel & not any models, world series matchup & winner?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

My gut is less on Tigers than before. Phillies over Mariners

The JP Crawford Bowl

Guest

12:10

Is there that much of a defference between Dustin May and Mellil Kerry?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

honeslty, I don't think so, but Kelly is healtheir

Big Buckston

12:10

ZiPS has always seemed very high on Kyle Manzardo as compared to other projection systems and public scouting grades. What do you make of that? Is there a reason ZiPS saw something there?

I ask because he's been on a tear recently.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

That's kinda hard to say, because I can't dig into the other projection systems and see why they like him LESS

12:12

Dude raked in the minors, without hitting at any crazy hitter palaces, and there's no particular bright red flag in his profile

ZiPS was also much higher on Pete Alonso than most, but I'm not sure WHY

12:13

in any case, as philosopher Nicholas Plouffe once said "comparisons are the thief of joy."

Oh, on the question about the 27 innin ggame

you can actually get some experience on this playing a Showdown on MLB the Show

Hoplarsko

12:13

How often does a batted ball actually hit a base? I've gone seasons without seeing it happen and I just saw it happen twice in the just-completed Padres-Giants 3-game series.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I don't have data on that, sadly, though I've seen it happen. I'd call it occasionally rather than RARE

Murph

12:15

Pocket Pancake or George Webb Burger?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I haven't had either! I just haven't spent a ton of time in milwaukee

MySpace Influencer

12:16

Ballpark the odds the O's make it to .500 this year? (They'd need to go 27-15 or better.)

Dan Szymborski

12:16

3%?

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