JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/25

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Sleve McDichael

12:28

ZiPS's favorite minor leaguer ever?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Nick the Stick

(Johnson)

Guest

12:28

When the Brewers reach into their 80th or 90th percentile every year how do you reconcile that with the fact there appears to be no reversion towards the mean?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

black magic

12:29

I'd love to capture it with data, but so far have been unsuccessful

they're like one of those youtubers who buys a broken luxury car for $2K and then fixes one thing cheaply and suddenly it runs perfectly

Oaktown Blues

12:30

Do you think Jacob Lopez is for real? Can a guy with a 91 MPH fastball continue to rack up the Ks like this?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I wouldn't say BULLISH, but he's actually good a good contact rate. But any dropoff in his command and it could go bad quicly

21127

12:30

*in the middle of thr inning in a game with one inning of 27 outs* They're only up by 22. We GOT this!

Noah

12:30

Do you think the rangers make the playoffs this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

no

James

12:30

Has Correa's future zips changed at all from his small sample success back in Houston? I feel like he still has a couple more all-star seasons in there

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Not really. Still a possibility of course

Todd Bonzalez

12:31

Are you sure it wasn't Trevor Plouffe who once said that /s

NT

12:31

Do you think Devin Williams' 1st percentile was around a 5.48 ERA? This has to be one of the most shocking reliever seasons in a while

Dan Szymborski

12:31

What's weird about his season is that between the garbage bookends, there was a long period where he was really solid

12:33

It was 7th percentile by the way

Relievers are REALLY volatile

Percentile ERA+ ERA WAR 95% 374 1.10 2.7 90% 277 1.49 2.3 80% 213 1.94 1.9 70% 186 2.22 1.7 60% 168 2.46 1.5 50% 155 2.66 1.3 40% 135 3.05 1.1 30% 119 3.46 0.8 20% 104 3.96 0.5 10% 87 4.76 0.1 5% 72 5.70 -0.3

Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

12:34

George Wolkow's line batting one-handed
1.000/1.000/1.000

Should he convert to this approach full-time?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I dunno, it wasn't *great* for Pete Gray and he had a ton of experience

Captainjameshook

12:34

Pohlads now not selling majority after teardown has to be brutal for fans. Who lands Ryan this off-season?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Orioles I hoep! lol

12:35

It is brutal

funny how baseball teams are awful businesses and all these owners supposedly losing money keep backing down from making huge profits

party

1

STiVo

12:35

Does your lack of concern for minor-league Ks work for Spencer Jones?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

yes

Kip

12:35

How does ZIPs project Michael Harris next season? His second half production is so wildly different and I can't imagine how that forecast would work.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

There's a peice coming!

piece

Chicks Dig the Fundamentals

12:35

Mets and Yankees are in basically a dead heat with each other after the recent skids. Playoff odds has the Mets as slightly more likely to miss the playoffs. Which team do you personally think has a better chance of actually missing the playoffs and bringing shame to the island of Manhattan?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

That's tough. I think the Yankees are more front-end reliant, which makes their downside bigger

BUT, if comedy = tragedy plus time, the Mets are comedy - time.

War2D2

12:36

I’m the guy that asked the Caissie question (my browser logged me out and I didn’t notice). I wasn’t arguing, I want to believe! I’ve just been hurt so many times.

Seattlite

12:36

How does a season like Cal Raleigh is putting up affect ZIPS? Even people in Seattle recognize that Cal isn't gonna smash 50 HRs a year going forward, but how does an outlier season like this one affect future projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

accurately I hoep! lol

12:37

actually, I've looked at projection results based on recent year departure from previous projections, and surprisingly, there's no significant change in accuracy

though a change in volatility - the misses both good and bad are bigger

12:39

I *hope* this means that I'm weighting performance relatively optimally

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