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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/14/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:57

There's some Pyramid of Greatness overlap, but I don't like haircuts, am not physically fit, and I'm far too silly to compare

though we probably both land on chaotic neutral

Kip

12:57

Why do teams try to hide or obscure how many people work in their analytics departments?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Because there's no real benefit to talk about it

Joeg

12:58

What is the best way to make it into the world of an MLB front office? I’m pretty garbage at playing the game, but think a job would be intresting interesting in the field

Dan Szymborski

12:58

There's no best way. Just do something that solves a problem for a team

Guest

12:58

will the guts of zips ever be made open source?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

PROBABLY not. I talk a lot about *how* it works, but I don't give out every last secret

1:00

Someone very smart could probably reverse engineer ZiPS from what I've said

and someone has done at least part of it pretty well https://brandon.nguyen.vc/2021/06/finding-player-comps-with-mahalnobis...

but ZiPS isn't a product of genius, but of time

1:01

and it does a lot of little things that other projection systems haven't, because I have the ability to spend a lot of time working on the models

like there's a generalized model for players approaching HR/hit milestones that keeps PAs from dropping as fast

and so on

Guest

1:01

at ESPN, you're in the cafeteria and stephen a smith comes and sits down at your table. How do you introduce yourself, and what do you think Stephen A's grasp would be of what "zips" is

Dan Szymborski

1:02

The cafeteria at ESPN is mostly the young people!

at least when I've been there

tis' a really good cafeteria there

One time I was there it was custom wood fired pizza day

But I don't really talk too much about what I do unless someone asks

I mostly just introduce myself as dan and at most I say I write stat stuff about baseball

Alby

1:03

How is it shame to the island of Manhattan? Neither team plays there.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

Did I say taht? I mean, the people of Manhattan are still mostly ROOTING for one of them

Karl Hungus

1:03

How close have you come in selling zips?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I've had some inquiries, but I'm really uninterested

I'd have to be offered enough money that I can just go full retirement *without* a change in lifestyle

and that would be a stupid amount of money to give me, I think

Just Fowl

1:04

Except for playing time ZiPS has nailed Trevor Story’s 50th percentile season pretty well. Let ‘em eat an old floppy as a treat.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Sadly, ZiPS isn't on the PC that still has a floppy drive,.

my stereo system is still driven by a Pentium 4 stuffed in an HTPC, but I don't have a current ZiPS on there

mattybobo

1:05

Your story about almost being drowned by a life jacket reminds me of a George Carlin bit about irony and how often it's misunderstood. Basically, if you have diabetes and are walking to the doctor's office, and you get hit by a truck and die, it's not ironic. If you get hit by a sugar truck and die, that's not quite ironic. If you get hit by an insulin truck and die, THAT'S ironic.

dusty

1:05

Firing up the old simulation machine, based on MLB average hitters in each of the 9 lineup spots:
1 inning, 27 outs: 8.6 runs/game
3 innings, 9 outs: 6.9 runs/game
9 innings, 3 outs: 4.9 runs/game
27 innings, 1 out: 3.7 runs/game
Less spread than I would have guessed!

Oaktown Blues

1:06

Where's the guy who does the silly Panama palindromes? I want him to do one for the kayak story

Billy

1:06

Zips ROS unimpressed w/ Ben Rice’s exit velos, lack of chase and whiff, crazy barrel rate, etc?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

Mostly that ZiPS ROS is simplified

Joeg

1:06

Working on a project for school trying to sim baseball games using Markov chains. Do you think a model like this would be possible?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

That approach has certainly been done

Pedantic Proofreader

1:06

Currently perusing Eric's article on the 1st-place Padres' and 2nd-place Dodgers' pitching prospects. There's an "it's"/"its" error. Given that Meg participates in pedantry in Effectively Wild: A Fangraphs Baseball Podcast Presented by Patreon Supporters, should I email her to pick such a nit, or pass?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I'm just glad I didn't make one myself! lol

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