JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/21

Dan Szymborski

12:01

GAFTERNOON

Rick

12:03

Thoughts on Bohm for 2022 and beyond? Was this year just a case of 2nd year struggles or more serious? Thanks

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I think he'll be OK. I have nothing to prove it, but he's a guy who has had limited time in the upper minors before the majors, so he's not quite there with the adjust-readjust cycle that's necessary for long-term success

BEN GAMEL GRADE 80 HAIR

12:07

Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez improvements this year for real? Both legit ~50 FV types?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I don't usually use FV personally since I think that's better for scouting, but I'm bullish on both of them now.

12:08

Unless they changed parks and I missed it, NW Arkansas doesn't play anywhere crazy that would explain Melendez and Pratto absolutely killing it this year

Jacques Pederson

12:08

Dan, as an Orioles fan, how do you feel about the rebuild?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It's been tough. The O's haven't had much fortune in their pitching prospects and I think they were one of the teams most hurt by the lost 2020 minor league season.

Didace

12:08

Don't you think we could all agree that it's well past time for everyone with a projection system took a cold, hard look at reality, face facts, and incorporate a lolMets factor into their calculations? Seriously, has any team over the last 10 years under-performed by so much?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I can actually TELL you relative to projections if you give me a minute!

12:12

2011-2020

(Formatting sucks, but I literally did this in 3 minutes)

12:13

That's 2011-2020

That's right, I designed a projection system that overrated the Rockies, which feels like a glorious self-own.

Dave

12:14

In honor of the Dodgers-Padres game last night, you should chat for 5 hours and 49 minutes

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Oh god no

I've done marathon chats before, they're very exhausting!

Especially because I tend to answer a lot of things in rapid-fire fashion

And who would want to listen to me for 5 and a half hours?

12:15

Err 6 hours?

zurzles

12:15

Can you explain what's up with Miguel Sano's UZR/150 at 1B? He has 737.2 innings with a -5.4 UZR. His UZR/150 is -44.7 somehow.

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Hmm

12:16

Something very odd is going on.

I will message Sean, who I dont' think is on vacation

barney gumble

12:16

hey dan. why is andrew heaney so prone to giving up home runs? he has good stuff and decent control

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Seems to me that his sinkery fastball something trails to high up in the zone.

(Which I will now check on Statcast)

12:18

He hasn't *explicitly* thrown a sinker in a few years

But pitch classification algorithms still think he does in a lot of applications

12:19

Hmm, inconclusive

That's my rough working theory, I'd have to think about it further

Chris

12:19

Mariners are making the playoffs right? Right Dan? Come on Dan, look away from zips and tell me yes!!

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Yes, but only because you make me say it

Greg

12:20

Does it look like Kopech will be a starter next year? Worth holding onto in a 12 man, 12 keeper league?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I think he is.

However, if he's not, I think it won't happen at all.

12:21

In five years, who will the best player and pitcher in the game be?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Pitcher, I'd still guess Buehler or Cole

Player, Tatis

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