JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/26/21

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Dave

12:21

Is there any meaningful difference between the calculus behind your preseason projections vs the in-season ROS projections? Or is it the exact same model and the only difference is that the in-season projections have the benefit of additional data from the current season?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Yes. The in-season model is much simpler than the season-to-season one.

For practical reasons.

12:22

To do the full model every day, I'd have to have ZiPS running on a PC 24/7

Moose_Bolton

12:22

What is your favorite kind of sandwich?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I love a good french dip

12:23

Subs, cheesesteak

12:23

Pederson and Duvall both have mutual options. Soler is a FA. How many of them do you see sticking around in Atlanta for 2022?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I think Duvall could come back

SKU...bal

12:24

Dan, have you heard anything concrete about plans to limit Tarik Skubal's innings down the stretch--whether by shortened starts, staggered starts, putting him in the 'pen, or what-have-you? He's at 128 now, after pitching just 32 last year (though he pitched 122.1 in the minors in '19).

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I haven't heard anything concrete, but I suspect they'll shorten his starts in September considering they've explicitly done it with Mize

12:26

Kyler

12:26

You ever played Super Mega Baseball? No MLB license but man what a fun game.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I haven't actually. I hear great things about it, but with MLB the Show, I usually want to play MLB the Show

DBA

12:26

How much weight, beyond normal park adjustments, would Zips factor into Willy Adames forecast given his striking Trop/non-Trop career splits? (My assumption is the answer is something like '600 PAs is too few to be meaningful/I think it's at least partly real but won't put my finger on the scale' - but am curious.)

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Player-specific home-road splits aren't very predictive at all

The actual park factors are far more so.

It's too noisy

It's worse than player-specific platoon splits vs. generic platoon splits, and there, it's like 3000 PA for hitters until they become equally predictive

12:28

It leads people to underrate the occasional Rockie

like Bichette

You can't just look at the road stats

Look at adjusted home stats.

Matt

12:31

Is there any reason why Statcast can’t measure bat speed?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Harder to track maybe? The specifics of the tracking is a little out of my wheelhouse

12:31

Looking at Cedric Mullins II breakout season, it looks like the only time he put up numbers like this in the minors was when he repeated a level. Are there other guys who showed a pattern of needing to acclimate longer at a minor league level who then went on to a MLB breakout in their 2nd or 3rd season?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

There are guys like that, but it's usually hard to find a *pattern*

So it's mostly keep trying

Bigfoot Erotica

12:32

Given that the Nats have gotten non-cipher like performances from Gerardo Parra and now Alcides Escobar, would you bet against a Chris Davis redemption in DC somewhere around 2023?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

That's probably a birdge too far

>this guy<

12:32

Dan what is the S.D. year to year per team from that table above? aka Which team is the most unpredictable?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

hang on