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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

The appointed time has arrived.

Gerry McDonald

12:01

Jay Harry just keeps on hitting and his strikeout numbers have been better in AAA. What stops him from being a regular major leaguer?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I imagine he *will* get time in 2027, should he keep hitting early next year

opifijikl

12:02

Have you ever tracked how ZiPS player comps stick or change through the years? Do you think around 50% would stay the same and 50% would change?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Oh, they do generally change quite a bit, because no two players are truly the same, and paths vary a lot

motown oden

12:03

Hey Dan! In your milestones article, Gerrit Cole’s projections seemed a bit odd. It has him winning 30 more games, but fanning less than 400 more batters. In his career, recent and otherwise, he’s at about 1.5 K : win. Even in their 40’s, Scherzer and Verlander didn’t completely crater regarding strikeouts. Not that he’s necessarily their peers.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Unfortunately, I've updated the park and league and season to date data in ZiPS since then, so I don't have the data from the weekend, so I can only give you waht his projection is

mike sixel

12:07

I'd ask the one twins question you get every chat, but I don't know why I should care when ownership clearly doesn't....

Dan Szymborski

12:07

habits are hard to break!

bkgeneral

12:08

Do you see any team claiming Suarez or Friedl?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I can see someone wanting Friedl for a very specific role

12:09

You'd have to be crazy or desperate to claim Suarez and pay like $2.5 million for him

Jeremy Fox

12:11

What's wrong with Wheeler?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Well, he performed rather unimpressively during Sherman's Atlanta campaign

12:12

As for Zack, I'm not sure, that Cardinals start was ugly and it wasn't like he had bad BABIP luck

err Mariners

wtf dan

they don't even wear the same colors!

Charles Bengal Tiger

12:13

Is there any hope for Noelvi Marte?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Some, but I dont' think a team can count on him

Jeremy Fox

12:13

When a ZiPS projection misses very badly on a player one year, the error bars on next year's projection surely widen. But do they widen enough? And when ZiPS misses very badly on a player one year, is there any bias in the direction of its miss on that player the next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Now this one I know off-hand: there's no year-to-year correlation in the misses

12:14

not just a small correlation, but decimal places starting with 0

warpath

12:14

Hey Dan, thanks for the chat.

Statcast debuted their swing timing + miss distance metrics this year, but I honestly haven't seen much discussion of them around here. Are you or anybody else tinkering with them? They've been mentioned so little that I almost forgot they were now public.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Like all Statcast data, I don't really have a lot of thoughts until I have time to dig into a few year sof data

opifijikl

12:14

I think it's so cool how you provide the percentile outcomes for players, although the ceilings and floors aren't as extreme as I'd expect. Do you have any feelings on what constitutes a high floor/low ceiling or low floor/high ceiling guy from ZiPS perspective? And what do you think a good blend of the two is?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I dunno, these outcomes are pretty wide!

12:15

Like take Raleigh

Percentile2BHRBAOBPSLGOPS+WAR95%2846.265.367.5541627.290%2544.252.356.5331516.480%2240.238.344.5051405.770%2037.230.333.4841315.160%1935.223.325.4691264.650%1833.216.318.4451194.240%1731.208.311.4291123.730%1629.202.303.4111063.420%1526.192.296.390992.910%1223.178.283.361892.25%1121.170.268.344791.4

uggh

dang I wish you could paste images in jotcast

12:16

not sure why this one is bright green