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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/26

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scottsjunk1981

12:34

You only answered Jeremy Fox's question about YoY bias, but his other one is more interesting (to me, at least). Does Zips adjust to its misses by increasing its uncertainty about a given player or type of player? And, more generally, what kinds of patterns have you seen in variance of projections beyond just longer track records reducing it? Do you have "boom or bust" markers that you can look out for?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

ZiPS adjusts in the sense that the data pool it has to look at keeps growing

though it doesn't increase uncertainty ABOUT a player

crew87

12:35

you've said how you have ZiPS hidden in a park. Do you keep up to date with the park's plans to make sure they're not going to pave a road over it, or chop down the tree you've hidden it in? Or dredge the lake you scuba'd to the bottom of to bury it?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I do not. I update it when I pass by every couple of years

Let's just say it's a location that's extremely unlikely to change

krob4385

12:35

Sal Stewart!!? How's about Carson Benge and Nolan McLean? Could they steal some hardware from that dude in St. Louis?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

The thing about Benge is that if you appreciate Benge's season, you probably are of a certain frame of mind that also has you appreciating Wetherholt

Like yeah, if you're using WAR, you'll prefer Benge to Stewart, but if you're the person doing that, you'll prefer Wetherholt to benge too

McLean is the most interesting theif

thief

theif? WTF dan

drplantwrench

12:37

whats the most fun slack channel?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I'm not sure FUN is a thing really. Our Slack tends to be pretty by the numbers

Cameron Crain

12:37

what's for lunch

Dan Szymborski

12:38

nothing

crew87

12:38

do you have set hours you're supposed to be working or is meg just like "eh you wrote a few articles this week, great!"

Dan Szymborski

12:40

No set hours. The thing is, David and Meg have put together a bunch of people who are real self starters in this regard, and *want* to write things and can be trusted to work.

I can only speak for myself, but I'm always tinkering with something, and I do a lot of radio/podcasts, and Meg usually messages me on the weekend what I have planned for the week so far, and I give her a semi-confusing rundown of what I'm thinking on. And when stuff pops up, someone will usually jump up and grab it in the main channel

12:41

Now, there are certain timed things, like the deadline, where you kinda need to be around

Bud Smith

12:42

How do I get my 15 year old cat to stop peeing JUST outside the litterbox? It's like he's an umpire who has expanded the zone a bit too much, but I can't ABS the pee back into the box

Dan Szymborski

12:42

You might need to get a senior litterbox that has very low sides (and put a larger mat underneath to catch litter). Sometimes, the climbing in the box can be awkward for an older cat if they have arthritis. Had that problem with Mercutio after about 16

cyanocitta

12:43

I asked this question previously, and received this from Jay Jaffe: “compounding probabilities and distribution tails” are lyrics to the type of song that Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens tap their toes to. You’re better off asking either of them than me

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I don't know many statistical probability songs!

12:44

Weirdly, the two songs I'm most likely to randomly just start rambling to myself are Barbie Girl and Belle and Sebastian's Get Me Away From here I'm Dying

The first one will frequently have random baseball lyrics about whatever I'm watching

12:45

and I don't even realize I'm doing it

Uncle Spike

12:45

Does consistency matter? If two guys end up with the same line at the end of the season with similar peripherals, does it matter if one guy maintained a wRC+ between 100-120 every month of the season while the other guy varied between 50-200? What about for a 22 year old rookie who struggled for the first 4 months but finished with a strong final 2 months?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It probably matters, but it's never really a case where it comes down a decision of x vs. y player because of consistency, so it matteers in the sense of small potato

Nils

12:46

Regarding Tommy McCarthy, why does his HoF plaque say he stole 108 bases in 1888 but his FG stats say 93?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Because, frankly, record-keeping of early baseball sucks

Even well into 20th century

Hack Wilson's plaque says 190 RBI, but we're pretty sure it's 191

12:48

and ty cobb 4189 hits

oaktownblues

12:48

Thanks for your response re: park factors. Assuming the park factor at SHP has indeed gone up, would that have changed the conclusion of your "when will the A's be competitive again" piece? Like, maybe the offensive core isn't as good as we thought?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I don't think it drastically changes things

12:49

the thing is, I calculate park factors on my own end, so if there was a FG blooper on the PFs, I wouldn't have been affected

I calculate basically everyone myself that I can and rely on research that I run and replicate myself

12:50

I'm from the early days of internet statnerdery, remember, where you had to get all the data, and run all the things yourself

crew87

12:50

MLB The Show is a free game on PS+ this month. Do you think that's a sign sales are slower, and will it cause them to make updates to the game in the next year or two?

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