JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/4/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:29

It's really hard to tell with so much uncertainty

12:30

The Padres could go doomsday clock for end of 2024

Rob

12:30

Rutschman is already top 10 in catcher WAR in half the games but would love more than 5 homers in 50+ games!

Dan Szymborski

12:30

DONT BE GREEDY

JasonM

12:30

From your Article on Aug 2nd "Padres Push In All Their Chips, Agree to Deal for Juan Soto and Josh Bell" you stated that "(Year-by-year projections for Wood and Susana are unfortunately beyond ZiPS’ scope at this stage of their careers.)" What is the tipping point where ZiPS is able to do year-by-year projections on players? Wood has only has a couple hundred PAs at low-A so far, is it a matter of just having a larger sample at low-A (or below) or would he need to have played at A+? or AA?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

It's mostly where I'm comfortable

I don't like projecting hitters until a full season of high A and pitchers until they have at least SOME AA time

12:31

at least, not enough to do year by year readouts

because the volatility is MASSIVE for those guys

Just comfortable enough with the mean WAR totals for the prospect rankings

John

12:31

How wide do you believe the gap is between the top and bottom teams when it comes to developing and applying analytical tools and models?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Certainly smaller than 20 years ago

12:32

A bad front office now -- let's say the Royals -- would be in the top tier in 1995

Rockies are poorly run no matter the era

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:32

Did the Dodgers make a mistake in not adding another high leverage reliever?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I think it's a possibility

Fanny

12:34

Hello Dan, it seems like some players were just in the right place at the right time, such as Jose Altuve and how he ended up getting signed by the Astros. Who do you think the best player(s) is who never had the opportunity? Not someone like Grady Sizemore for example, who was derailed by injuries; and not someone who was a hyped prospect but then just never produced, like Mark Appel (though he currently he has 1.74 ERA with the Phillies?!?). But someone who seemed like they could have been really good but just never got the chance to either get called up or get a full-time job. Anyone come to mind?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

All time? That's hard, it depends on what you consider too much of an opportunity.

Roberto Petagine never really got consistent playign time

Greg LaRocca had a much smaller window

12:36

Scott McClain has to be on that list

12:39

Karl Pagel

Brian Dopirak

sorry, just thinking of names here

Cat Latos

12:39

What do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Last I saw them, Constantine was sitting on the kitchen counter because he was getting hungry, Cassiopeia was on a blanket in a guest bedroom, and Mercutio was bullying Justinian over the fishing pole that is a long fluffy yellow measuring tape with a bell at the end

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:40

The Rays would be in trouble for doing little at the deadline if not for the Red Sox, White Sox, and Guardians doing (net) nothing to help themselves right?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Yeah, it wasn't the most exciting deadline for the Rays

Romorr

12:41

Considering the return the Reds got fir Mahle, would you have liked to have seen Mike Elias beat that? Under control for next year as well made him attractive in my eyes.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Meh

I'd rather the O's give up money in FA than prospects

Giant Gonzales

12:41

How do you view Bloom as a GM so far? I thought this would be more of a retool while rebuilding the farm system, but the returns on the Betts trade are below cromulent, the Renfroe swap is a meh, and the "big" money Story signing isn't looking too hot. Is this a case where it's 5 years in before he's done shedding all the previous contracts/players? If Devers doesn't get extended, it's a tough pill to swallow watching the amount of young talent that's left over the past couple years.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think it's hard to say so far; I think he's also under a lot of ownership constraints

call it an incompelte

12:42

For example, I have a good faith basis to believe that ownership insisted on a player who could contribute now for Betts

Romorr

12:42

With just 93 games above A+ for Gunnar, are you comfortable with the service time assetments? For me, I can kind of see both sides to this.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Here's what it comes down to for me

What is he going to do against AAA pitchers that he isn't already to be more ready?
Is he better than who he would replace?

If the answer is shrug and yes, then it's service time

12:46

He's a 21-year-old who can play shortstop and a .939 OPS at AAA. What exact skill will he develop AAA now outside of simply beating the pitchers up even more?

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