JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/5/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:51

I don't know if it was true or not, but there was a rumor that Brian Wilson didn't make a comeback attempt with the Yankees because of it

Guest

12:51

Hi Mr. Analytics

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Am I Mr. Analytics?

12:52

It's not directly comparable, but I still like the clip

Your Name

12:52

Cats? Lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Cassiopeia is fuming in a closet because I woudln't give her additional wet food

(She was too lazy to come to dinner yesterday, so she's had to just eat the dry stuff)

12:53

Constantine's hanging out with my mom, who is doing something in my kitchen. I liked being across the street better *before* she retired.

Mercutio was sleeping in the living room.

And Justinian's next to me sleeping.

Alby

12:53

Do GMs' personalities match their professional traits? For example, is Dayton Moore an eternal optimist? Is AJ Preller a wild man? Is Jerry DiPoto mercurial?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

It varies

12:54

I also don't get to know a lot of front office people personally outside of a baseball context.

12:55

Even people who I'm friendly with before they go into baseball like Kevin Goldstein or Dave Cameron, I don't seek them out especially when they're with teams

I think it's appropriate for me to avoid being over-chummy with people when they're working for a team, no matter who the ey are

INappropriate

Appa Yip Yip

12:56

If you were to be fitted with an old timey baseball moniker, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Losing Pitcher

Cynthia

12:56

I've seen a lot of people who are familiar with stat but seem to lack an understanding of probability. For example, people will look at a player having a breakout year and point out their expected stats are equally good to say that's a fair expectation going forward. Do you think regression toward career norms is under-utilized?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Among people not looking at projection systems, absolutely!

What it comes down to is that a player having a breakout year is more likely exceeding their abilities than falling short.

12:57

That's one of the awkward things about projections is that you never really know the right answer.

Yes, you know that Shlubba Bubba ended up hitting .330

But that doesn't tell you if he "actually" a .330 hitter in some universal sense.

But it's more likely he's a lucky .310 hitter than an unlucky .350 hitter

12:58

I always hated describing regression toward the mean writing for ESPN. I think I called it Madden curse more than regression

Jed Hoyer

12:58

Fans are going to expect me to put some of Tommy's cash on the line this winter and sign some bigger name free agents, but the better more principled approach would be to buy every undervalued player, reclamation project, etc. on 1-2 year deals and do the deadline flip at least one more time, right? Maybe even shop Hendricks and Contreras this winter?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I actually have a Cubs piece coming on soon!

Rich

12:58

Be nice. Maybe your mother is cooking you something delicious in your kitchen!

Dan Szymborski

12:58

It's more likely she's eating something delicious *from* my ktichen

Monsignor Met

12:59

“Gah! Our rivals acquired a 37-year-old with a 5.58 FIP! I’m irritated!” -Cubs fans everywhere