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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/11/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:40

but I can see a specific team having the justification

Jeremy

12:40

Analysts draw a distinction between true talent that's very autocorrelated (doesn't change with time, or only changes slowly due to age) and noise/luck that's not autocorrelated at all. But is player performance autocorrelated on intermediate timescales--days, weeks, months?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I've actually experimented with this quite a bit - I think of talent as fluctuating in a range

Otherwise, we have way too many no hitters and homer streaks and hitting streaks

Guest

12:41

I remember a while back there was an article comparing Bichette to a poor mans Turner. With his recent bounce back in the last couple weeks since, what do you project his contract to look like

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Don't think he'll get Turner money

We'll talk more about this in offseason!

Greg

12:42

Guest

12:42

Best sabermetric-focused book to read after finishing The Book?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think that hidden game of baseball and the bill james abstracts are foundational. Simply put, seeing where sabermetrics "started" and understanding its evolution kind of makes you understand the insides more

And it also depends on where you are

And remember, I speak from the perspective of someone who has been into sabermetrics for 40 years

Greg

12:44

Since someone asked you about movies, I sent you an image and I think you'll love it. I couldn't get the game to give him fungus on his shower sandals, though.

War2D2

12:44

I think it’s scaled to OBP because “wOPS” would be offensive.

is a radish sharp though?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

a good radish should be

could also rhyme it with horseradish

though would have to tinker

I normally don't try to write a limerick in live chat

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:45

On the wOBA v OPS topic - Tom Tango's short chapter on the topic in The Book always cracks me up. It's basically "wOBA is better in every way than OPS and here's why and we won't be discussing OPS any more in this book"

Dan Szymborski

12:45

OPS is always controversial because it's a really useful kludge

honestly, xFIP is the same way

12:46

xFIP is kind of stupid. But it also kind of works because HR totals for pitchers is kind of a crap stat

so it works by sucking less

We do a lot of brute force shortcuts in life because they work kinda fine

Pinstriped Power

12:47

I like to think of OPS as just a bit analytical but still easy to understand

Dan Szymborski

12:48

saber-adjacent

Tiger Fan

12:48

Thanks. I would’ve thought OPS was more mainstream for catch-all offense than OBP (I hear way more dads talk about judge’s 1.100 OPS than Soto’s .400 OBP) which is what I thought wOBA would target

Greg

12:48

I always try to write a limerick in your live chat Dan, you can count on me

Guest

12:48

Is Anthony Volpe just New York's Marner? If so, Volpe for Lawrence butler 1 for 1?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I haven't known enough about hockey in 30 years to be making analogies

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:48

Mookie since declaring his season over has been like a .300/.400/.500 hitter. Maybe the solution all along was just giving up?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I mean, didn't we all learn from that Voyager episode where the ship was going into an anomaly and the configuration of the ship kept changing and they realized that the solution was just to sit there and shut up?

12 to 6

12:49

can't see the dodgers being a realistic belly location this offseason - they have pages and teo and a passel of of prospects on the come and freeman blocks belly at 1b. they may pump the market and i'm sure he'd love to go back to la, but the fit doesn't seem to be sensical to me.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

yeah, I'm not sure dodgers would

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:49

Would you be in favor of MLB amending the Ohtani rule to allow his team to keep the DH if he comes in as a relief pitcher (a la WBC)?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I would, but I haven't greatly pondered the loopholes

Sawx

12:50

After a few Tolle starts, one Early start, and one appearance for Kyle Harrison, which of the Sox lefties do you think makes the biggest impact on the last month of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I think Early might be the safest. I think he's better than Harrison, and he didn't advance quite as quickly as Tolle did

Tolle really has very little upper minors experience

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