JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/16/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:16

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Buck_Bokai

Momus

12:16

Robbie Ray... just... wow

Dan Szymborski

12:16

His projection is going up like $2 million per start

Mork Borg

12:16

When a team greatly outperforms not just their projections, but also their expected record based on accumulated stats, what can we take away from that? Is it just always luck/noise? Is there no hidden signal there?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Generally speaking, projections themselves change and shift based on new information. And if you disagree, Thomas Bayes comes and mudhole stomps you in your sleep

Though exceeding record based on things they did (as opposed to the things they did becoming better) is not very predictive

12:18

It sounds like it should, but even things like bullpen quality have little bearing

12:19

I wrote something related.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-march-projections-matter-in-september/

Guest1

12:19

hello is this working

Dan Szymborski

12:19

IT IS

Catcher on the Rye

12:19

Is horse paste on MLB's list of banned substances? 😁

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I don't know?

I guess it could be a masking agent in addition to a dewormer?

Cliffyw

12:20

It’s 2045. Wander Franco has just been elected to the HoF. Who are the top players on his similarity score metrics? Is he a Tony Gwynn/Wade Boggs type or does he develop more power.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

His first Hall of Fame comp in ZiPS is Barry Larkin

Guest1

12:20

Hello harold is harold here

Dan Szymborski

12:21

THIS IS DAN WHODIS?

Dansbee

12:21

what's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Mom dropped off a couple egg mcmuffins

Which is more than fair considering she also left with one of my credit cards, so god knows what she's buying

Jeff W

12:21

Are 40-something amazing games enough to move the ZIPS 2022 needle on Frank Schwindel? I don't think anyone sees a .453 wOBA for him next year, but .292 is looking pretty low, too.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Not a huge amount

I can't do that one on the fly because I need to translate las vegas stats first

TomBruno23

12:22

You ever start a chat and yell out "LFG" as loud as you can to get yourself fired up?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I have not.

12:23

I'm not really a "fired up" kind of guy. I'm more calm and sarcastic.

12:23

Do you still expect The Jays to miss the post season?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

If they don't make it, I think they'll miss being in the postseason

>this guy<

12:23

Dan, who are some journeyman hitters who emerged this season that zips believes in? As in, if they are given the opportunity to play (probably on bad teams) in '22, could have similar performances. Such as Lane Thomas, Dank Schwindel, Ramon Urias, etc

Dan Szymborski

12:24

That's something I'm likely to do after I have final minor league translations in

Dansbee

12:24

Wins are a bad stat and yadda yadda but Jon Lester is going to get 200 of them and I am happy for him

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Egg McMuffins aren't nutritious, but you can still be happy I have 'em!

12:24

Bo Bichette had another big day with the bat yesterday. But, his errors are quite high this year. How long do you expect Bichette to stay at SS for Toronto?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I'm not worried about a move by any means right now

The Great Giambino

12:25

There could be a kid reading this that will live to be 110, theoretically could be their 2nd-to-last 9/16/21 of their lifetime

Dan Szymborski

12:25

If a kid's cutting school to come to a szymchat, they'll probably grow up and become a meth dealer and probably won't live to be 110

Soxxxxx

12:25

What are the chances Keuchel gets traded this offseason?