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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

The appointed time has arrived.

robertobeers

12:01

A man, a Dan, a chat, odds of two losing records in the playoffs? sffoyalpethinsdrocergnisolowtfosddotahcanadanama

Dan Szymborski

12:01

It's getting into low single digits now. There are enough contenders in the AL hovering around .500 that it's likely that both the ALC and wild cards will now be marginally winning teams

Charles Bengal Tiger

12:03

What prospect has made the biggest ZIPs jump this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Luis Lara I believe

if he had had had a 2026 projection, Eric Hartman would be up there too

Person

12:03

Carroll's odds of getting 4 triples in the last 9 games can't be good, just on general difficulty, even for him, yeah? fortunately 6 of the games are at Chase and Coors, but Petco is one of the worst

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Quite low, though I haven't run the numbers. But you know they're quite low and I do too!

He was looking good to get to 20, but he's gone nearly a whole month without a triple

Charles Bengal Tiger

12:04

Will the Orioles exercise Luis Robert Jr.'s option, or did they just basically throw several million dollars out the window for a dozen at bats?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I don't *think* they're going to pick up the option, but I don't think it's super unlikely

1/20 isn't really bad for a team that hasn't been crazy about their CF options this year

swieker

12:06

The Mets fans' trolling of their team by giving standing ovations to Alonso on two straight nights (!) was incredible. When you've booed your team for months, all you have left to do is cheer the other team. Amazing.

Dan Szymborski

12:06

Trolling is always fun

I don't think the problem for the Mets on a move standpoint was so much not moving Alonso, which was defensible, but not really have a good idea

Now, he's been terrible lately, but I liked Murakami a lot more than Polanco coming into the season

12:07

And as I said in the Mets preview, I think given where the mets were, I'd rather have Alonso at his deal than Polanco at his in the Mets position

swieker

12:07

A White Sox collapse, falling out of the playoffs, would be sad. But feels kind of inevitable. Are you taking the under on their playoff odds (70%)?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

No, I think they're still pretty decent

Pirates Hurdles

12:07

What to make of the 2026 Bucs? Underperformed their base runs, they had a ton of hitter injuries and Skenes regression. For 27 they return just about everyone minus Lowe, is there hope?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I think there's hope for the future, but they can't do it entirely from within and cheap FAs.

swieker

12:07

If this were a normal offseason, would you think the O's would pick up Robert's option?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I'm really on the fence. I think on balance, no, but again, yes is not far off

InsertWittyNameHere

12:08

Would it be feasible for MLB to either create their own sports book, or to tax the current ones to where a majority of the net profit the books make be spent towards youth leagues? If they’re going to allow gambling, they should at least redirect the funds to something moral to balance the scales. Instead of yelling at players for losing their parlay, they could say “hey, at least it’s for the kids!”

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Feasible? Yes, though it's not that straightforward to "tax the current ones"

12:10

They can't really stop most of it. They can offer licensing arrangement to incentivize sportsbook partnerships and state regulators can throw a monkeywrench in the works for sportsbooks

12:11

Probalby not really on MLB's horizon as they have enough to worry about at the moment

oaktownblues

12:11

Jacob Lopez is an interesting case because his ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all over 5, but his xERA is 3.52. Does ZiPS believe at all in his ability to play closer to his xERA in the future?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

ZiPS is kind of in the middle

he's not as good in the ZiPS version of xERA

but it does have him better than his current straightup numbers

NashvilleSounds

12:11

How do you tend to think about an entire unit - let's say, the Mariners' pitching staff - all having a bad year at the same time? Shrug and say "coaching"? Is there some contagion effect to being bad, or at least worse than expected?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

One thing I've found is that misses are still not predictive, even on teams that cluster team (whether good or bad)

12:12

Whether it's coaching or not is the hundred million dollar question of coruse

oaktownblues

12:12

My favorite "AL West is terrible" stat: the A's, 3rd worst team in baseball, currently have a winning record against every other AL West team this year

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Are people having an especially difficult time getting in here today? Really low reader number compared to usual and a very blank question queue

usually I have questions coming out of my butt at this poitn

Nickname (required)

12:13

Pre-season ZIPS had Jordan Walker's 80th percentile outcome as 256/321/415 with a 105 wRC+. Currently he's at 278/336/482 with a 125 wRC+. Does ZIPS think the breakout is real? Is this season a building block for greater things? Or should we expect horrific regression back to his earlier seasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

To an extent, he's real-ish. ZiPS is still seeing him as a 105-110 wRC+ guy

now

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