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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/17/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:14

Because there's a lot of REALLY awful play in his history, as solid as he's been this eyar

Sully

12:14

Football has begun and fantasy baseball is almost over, are what I suspect are the reasons why this chat is quiet.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

hmm, lemme check last year's data

Sully

12:14

Similar question like the one about Jacob Lopez, but for Ryan Johnson. And maybe a larger question about if you can tell if the changes in coaching can be visible this quickly in the Angels' performance as a rotation.

Dan Szymborski

12:15

It can be, if there is a very specific thing that is corrected

approach, motion, new pitch, those things

maybe tipping pitches

oaktownblues

12:16

Is there any reason to believe in Donovan Walton as a plus hitter? I keep expecting him to come back to Earth but he hasn't really

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'm kinda skeptical, though you can't deny that his outlook has at least gotten beter+

But he's also a 32 year old

and even his minor league line this year wasn't *Crazy*

soddingjunkmail

12:16

Is the hand wringing over potentially having losing record teams in the playoffs overblown in your opinion? And is it a problem that needs addressed or just passing variance?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I don't think so. You want the regular season to matter

12:17

MLB's season is a bigger deal than, say, the NBA's regular season

it doesn't take much for a .500 team to go on a deep run in MLB compared to other sports

12:18

Someone either on Reddit or Something Awful Sports Argument Stadium recently noted that in recent years, MLB's six seed has the best shot at advancing

Domingo Ayala

12:18

What are your thoughts on minor league x stats?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

They're fairly decent

mbushskbum

12:18

Dan, how does ZIPS see a player like Jake Bauer's, MLW, who at an older age has a full on break out season?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I'm not sure there' san easy answer to that. It weighs the new data more strongly than the older data, and it knows certain things are more predictive (fundamental changes in contact rate and stuff like that) than other things (BABIP)

Sully

12:19

If you had to choose one young pitcher to break out next season from Troy Melton, Kade Anderson, or Emerson Hancock, who do you like the most?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Kade

Barbaro Garbey

12:19

Dan, thank you for the chat. Given the Tigers' strong run differential and promising breakout performances from McGonigle, Max Clark, Eduardo Valencia, et al. - plus the fact that generally a team's prior year ZIPS projection has greater predictive value going forward than the team's actual won-loss record...seems like there's a good chance the Tigers will be favorites in the AL Central for 2027?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I think the Tigers will be fine

and there will be the usual handwringing in the offseason HOW CAN YOU PREDICT THEM TO WIN THE DIVISION THEY WERE BELOW .500 AND LOST SKUBAL

richwp01

12:19

Since Dan hates the White Sox (he doesn't), do you feel that their collapse (season is not over) reinforces projections and feeds your hate?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I like to believe that my hate is fed for non-projection systems. My PC isn't the boss of me!

non-projection reasons

eandy

12:20

If you are the Padres, are you putting Salas on the playoff roster? Their LHH options are bleak

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I absolutely wood

richwp01

12:20

"usually I have questions coming out of my butt at this poitn" Bad place for questions to come out.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

WHAT IF I NEED A COLONOSCOPY SMART GUY

12:22

I just checked, last year there was no september chat dropoff

12:23

I mean, maybe people just decided I suck over the last couple weeks, but I've been around long enough that this seems rather late in the day to suddenly come to that conclusion

oaktownblues

12:23

Do contact rate and SwStr% measure different things? I know they literally do, but like, do you think they tell you meaningfully different things about a player?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

not SO much

they're correlated

Justin Krupp

12:23

In a putrid giants season, really happy about how Eldridge has looked. Has this season moved the needle on his projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Yup

Nickname (required)

12:23