JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/2019

Gub Gub

12:02

Dan, how do I get gum out of my hair?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Peanut butter?

12:03

All I know about gum removal is that episode of the Simpsons where Lisa has gum in her hair and everyone lines up to "help"

Going Over the Hill

12:03

In your ZiPS projections, do you have an age at which you tend to assume players will start to get worse every year? Does this vary by position? Or otherwise how do you separate the young Lucas Giolitos, the middle-aged Gerrit Coles, and the spry Justin Verlanders of the world in your projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Generally speaking, hitters age, pitchers break.

You don't really get into a pitcher aging *curve* (apart from the normal risks for a pitcher) until the late 30s.

Ken Rosenthal

12:03

SOURCES: Dan Szymborski sleeps nude in an oxygen tent which he believes gives him sexual powers

Dan Szymborski

12:03

False

12:04

I’m pretty new to the game and not aware of MLB’s suspension culture. Was Michael Pineda aware of what he was doing or was he being truthful when he said he didn’t know? I guess I’m asking if most of the time people know or if it is truly an accident.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

There's this kind of kabuki were everyone seems to have to give the boilerplate didn't know and everyone pretends that *someone* out there believes them.

12:06

I'm sure there have been cases where a player has unknowing used

but that's so tricky that the rules are strictly constructed

John

12:06

Do the Marlins look to sign someone to a long-term deal this off season, like the Padres did with Hosmer?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I suspect no

David

12:06

May I ask for your projections on Cavan Biggio going forward

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Cheater!

Magic Kingdome

12:07

Best Rankin-Bass Holiday Special?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Year Without a Santa Claus because you get the sweet Heat Miser and Snow Miser

PadreFan

12:08

Dinelson Lamet struck out 14 Brewers in six innings last night. How optimistic should I be about a rotation that includes Lamet, Paddack, and Garret Richards as its top three starters?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I'd be very

Derek Smalls

12:08

Is the two-word review of the album Shark Sandwich an actual sandwich?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Only if reviewed through the medium of bread.

Philip

12:08

Is there a date for the zips prospect rankings?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm still rethinking how to fit it in without riding the coattails of Eric/Kiley and where it makes sense. Since it was so late in the season, it just didn't make sense to do it right before official ZiPS

Magic Kingdome

12:09

How should the A's. Rays, and Cleveland plan to use pitchers in the wild card game? Who should start? And if they should go with an opener, who should be their opener and bulk guy?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Depends! I think you have to plan for your best pitcher in the wild card game. It's the only game you KNOW ahead of time is going to be extraordinarily high leverage.

Magic Kingdome

12:09

Should the Mariners go the Texas route and sign some discount free agents like the Rangers did with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, or should they sit free agency out except for maybe a few league minimum depth guys?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think you look for opportunities, especially with a vp/gm who loves trading, but I don't think you go into the offseason with the plan to say, sign X number of starters or X position.

tslammer

12:11

Assuming a successful TJS, is Hunter Greene a future 60 or greater FV? What's your take on his talent?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I avoid going in strict FV fashion if I can avoid it. Let's say he's highly promising, but there are the normal caveats when dealing with a highly promising player with little professional experience, all in the low minors, with a major injury.

Stefan

12:14

Zips projections seem fairly optimistic about Royce Lewis being an above average major league player, yet, he has spent the last two years being barley above average in single A (2018) and below average in A and AA in 2019. Are projections accounting for something else? He just kind doesn't seem that good

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Let's not forget he's very young and just turned 20 and his power is developing (and without the benefit of being in AAA and using the wacky ball)

JupiterBrando

12:16

People use the phrase "worst contract" to refer to overpays and bad outcomes, but I prefer to look at them in terms of just how dumb they are. And in that case, is there any contract worse than Ian Desmond's? The Rockies gave him 5 years and 70 million to play first base. In Coors!

Dan Szymborski

12:16

In terms of pure projection, Cabrera was certainly worse.

But since there was an actual non-crazy argument there, Desmond's deal is dumber.

12:17

I don't agree with Detroit's reasoning for extending Cabrera; I thought his FA matched nicely with the end of Detroit's window

But I can't describe "He's our franchise player and a future Hall of Famer. We really, really want to keep him and he's not coming out of any kind of budget, so it doesn't affect how we treat other players" as a lunatic argument.

12:18

Now "Hey, let's sign Ian Desmond to play first base for five years. But don't worry, he can play outfield TOO!," is nucking futs.

12:19

You could say the Ian Kennedy signing was worse.

In some respects.

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