JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/2019

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/2019

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Dan Szymborski

12:34

Congrats

Although it's a mixed blessing as Florida Man may be your client.

tongue

1

kd

12:35

Benintendi really hasn't progressed at all this season and, in fact, his second half has been underwhelming. Were we too optomistic?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Depends how optimistic you were to begin with!

I don't think 115-120 OPS+ or wRC+ was all that greedy.

If you thought he'd be a superstar, yeah, that was probably unreasoanble even without the benefit of hindsight.

12:37

I think most years, Benintendi ought to be somewhere between 2.5 and 4 WAR

PD

12:37

Dan, what did you promise Carson, and why won't Meg let us know?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Wait, what is this?

PD

12:37

Re: worst contract. Can we call these best player contracts?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I think it can be tricky because realistically, you look at contracts from the point-of-view of teams, simply because the team's benefit is baseball wins while the player's benefit may be great houses and investments and maybe starting up their own business

12:39

We have more of a vested interest in, say, Chris Paddack winning games for the Padres, then how Chris Paddack's startup, which is, I don't know, Uber but like for pickpockets, is doing.

(I made up that startup)

12:40

I dont' think it's inconsistent for me to both praise a team for spending efficiently *and* wanting to see players win more.

12:41

I don't think teams have an ethical duty to spend more than they have to in any financial system. The solution isn't to get teams wanting to spend more, but a better *CBA* that's designed to incentivize investing in talent more than their pockets.

Al Gone Quinn

12:41

I may be butchering the conclusions of Voros McCracken's research of many years ago, but he seemed to say k's and bb's are highly controllable by a pitcher while hr's are somewhat controllable. Given the quantity of hr's given up this year, not to mention the cumulative #'s for the last few years, are zips and other projection systems saying hr's are even more controllable by a pitcher or less controllable since Voros' time?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Depends how you look at it.

12:42

ZiPS projects HR way better than actual HR does, but Voros didn't have the tools at the time.

It ain't V man's fault we didn't have exit velocity data or even good pitch velocity data in 1999.

Durability

12:42

Pujols will have played more games than Trout the last three years as soon as he plays tonight's game. Does this concern for Trout's gradual counting stats (incl chances to pass Bonds/Mays/etc in a decade)?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I don't think it's enough to cause concern

12:43

Pujols is getting quite a lot more playing time than his play has deserved for years!

I think Cabrera more likely to happen

I like the idea of Cabrera re-finding one last power season than Pujols hanging on for 44 more

stever20

12:44

which HR comes first, Pujols #700 or Cabrera #500? Right now Pujols is at 656, Cabrera 475.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Sorry, I didn't post the question, I wasn't just on a weird tangent

BenZ

12:45

If the AL Wild Card has a better record than the NL Central winner and they meet in the World Series, does the wild card team get home field advantage?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I believe so, yes.

rebuild season

12:45

Is Chris Davis on the O's roster come mid-season 2020?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I think they finally pull the plug before that

12:46

It's really getting kinda sad.

White Sox Fan

12:46

Buying Eloy last few weeks? Really barreling and laying off crap sliders while punishing anything in the zone.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Yes

CamdenWarehouse

12:46

I forgot about Thursday Dan!

Dan Szymborski

12:46

BUT YOU'RE HERE

Guest

12:46

How do the Indians replace Kipnis next year?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

At this point? Quite easily.

CamdenWarehouse

12:47

Did you get another cat? I saw a kitten post at some point

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Yes, I adopted two bonded kittens from the same litter so that they didn't have to be broken apart.

love

4

12:48

I'm up to three housepanthers now.

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