JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/22

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LaBellaVita

12:52

Predicting the future is difficult. I'm curious about the ZiPS model for predicting the W-L records of teams. The model at mid-season, even with lots of data, calculated 71 wins for Baltimore, and only 97 wins for LA. Even if we include the standard spread of outcomes due to randomness, these values are likely to be at least a couple standard deviations off. (Remember, it was mid-season.) In your view, are there teams that produced outcomes better (or worse) than the sum of their constituents? Or is this still randomness at work?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

There are always things a projection system cannot account for.

For instance, ZiPS doesn't know about future moves.

12:53

So it's slightly underrated teams that have added a net number of wins at trade deadlines and vice versa

But on a team-to-team basis, the year-to-year miss for teams has been random

12:54

Which is what you want, even if that leaves you less room to improve!

Key Flaw

12:56

During an O's broacast they mentioned Cockeysville, which (as a native Marylander) I don't think twice about. But my kids were laughing and thought it was a ridiculous name. What other Maryland place names are ridiculous but we have become inured to?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Funkstown

Chevy Chase

I grew up in Towson and generally hung out in Towson/Lutherville/Timonium/Cockeysville/Hunt Valley corridor.

so it seems perfectly normal to me

Appa Yip Yip

12:57

Yesterday the Jays tweeted out that they were 20 games above .500 with an 84 and 64 record, but weren't they actually 10 games above .500? Like yes, 20 more wins than losses but you don't just lop wins off when looking at how far over .500 you are, every win you remove must necessarily go into the loss column. they don't just vanish into the ether so it's actually a 10 game swing to be at .500? or am I mathing wrong? (V possible I am bad at math)

Dan Szymborski

12:57

It's a philosophical difference

And I don't think you can really pick which approach is correct

Because "above .500" is rather vague

12:58

If you're 64-84, you have to win 20 next games to get TO .500 again

12:58

What would you do to fix the Chicago American League ballclub?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Axe Williams, TLR, Reinsdorf

12:59

I know, firing the owner is hard, but if you're giving me dictatorial powers, I'ma gonna use them

Chrono Triggered

12:59

Is there data on walk rate declines for player's switching leagues? Matt Olson still hits the ball hard but his walk rate is way down. My theory is he doesn't know the pitchers as well and that he'll rebound next year.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I haven't found that

Silly Dan McGrew

12:59

Does Zips look at body size on aging curves? Would Judge being 6'7 and being over 270 lbs indicate his body might break down earlier?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I've found that size data is just horribly noisy and doesn't actually add anything, at least by any approach I've taken on

ZiPs

1:00

I know you showed the post-2022 projections for Judge, but this is the first (possible) 11WAR season since there was a Fangraphs. That's pretty remarkable

SammyT

1:00

Lots of calls for Logan O’Chopping off heads on the South Side. Do you chalk CHW’s 2022 up to bad luck and re-roll or would you recommend more drastic off-season measures? Is there even that much they CAN do?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

I dont' think there's anything fundamentally broken about the roster

But I think the organization's approach and tactics have a lot to be desiredc

Guest

1:01

What percentile performance is this for Spencer Strider relative to pre-season ZIPS? 100th?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Nowhere near that far

1:02

I have it all closed up now

but a 23-year-old with an 100 ERA+ having a great season isn't THAT crazy because pitchers are quite volatile

100 ERA+ projection that is

Guest

1:02

If I told you at the beginning of the year that Eugenio Suarez, Michael Harris, and Spencer Strider would all be 4+ WAR players this year, which would have most surprised you?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Harris

I would have been surprised that he'd get even enough playing time get four WAR

But the Braves have been aggressive with him and it paid off

Dan

1:03

I remember this year's most irreplaceable article didn't really have any Yankees thinking they'd make the playoffs even with an injury. But Judge is about 9 games better than their alternative outfielder and they sure wouldn't look good with nine less wins.

Dan Szymborski

1:03

Well, yeah, since ZiPS iddn't project 11 wins! lol

1:04

Right now, if you take 9 wins from the Yankees, they'd be out of the playoffs due to M's tiebreaker

(Unless one of those 9 wins goes to the Mariners)

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