JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/24/20

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/24/20

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brad

12:29

Do you think anyone will reach 200 innings next season? Counting the postseason the most any arm will get in this year will be less than 100, most likely, so that's a big gap to build back up to.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I think someone will still

brad

12:31

Will anyone notice if Fried and/or Burnes manage to be the first ever ERA qualifiers to finish the season undefeated? I know how pointless pitcher w/l are, but it's still going to be a record

Dan Szymborski

12:31

If we're counting short seasons, then Ed Cushman already did that

12:32

Best one-loss qualifier still Johnny Allen I believe at 15-1

Rodney

12:32

Why hasn't there been a character named Szymborski on Fargo yet?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Hey, we *just* got a Y&R cameo. Made me feel better for not getting ZiPS in that episode of Parks&Rec

12:35

I should upload that

Ferris

12:35

Thoughts on Walker Buehler’s Return tonight? Any pitch count?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I think conservative.

No reason to push him too far

OddBall Herrera

12:35

When I first saw your initial post I read it as "We are LAVASH", which struck me as an odd rallying cry

Dan Szymborski

12:35

We all truly are bread

timbo

12:35

Is the fact that the Reds have the 4th best odds of winning the World Series, among NL teams, attributable to their starting pitching?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I don't run that part so I'm not sure, but I think it likely since the Reds do well in ZiPS too

caesar_solid

12:36

Hi Dan! Do you know why league-wide pitcher BABIP and league-wide hitter BABIP are different each year (at least, on Fangraphs)? What am I missing? It's not an issue of leaving out position players pitching or pitchers hitting, nor is it something to do with qualifying or not.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It likely comes down to the calculation.

But that's outside my knowledge.

12:37

We *did* iron out the Khris Davis issue

12:38

http://baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/yrd.mp4

Scotty

12:38

I know his career isn't over but a ZIPs time warp for Jason Heyward sure would be interesting.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I may at some point!

Sonny

12:38

bowl of skyline to your head: pick the best KC and Det SP from their current crop of debuts/prospects

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I dunno, Singer/Manning/Mize/Skubal/Bubic?

TV

12:39

Any resource or website that you can point me to that will explain, in step-by-step detail, how to build a player statistical projection model for future years?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Unfortunately no. I mostly had to figure things out as I went along and reconstructing a haphazard mess into a step by step will be hard.

Maddoning

12:40

Thank you for your article on the Cubs offensive woes. You didn't even have to mention Kyle Schwarber and his 90 wRC+, 0.3 WAR, but why pile on? What's your take on Schwarbs?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

This might be a mean gutpunch, but I was just looking at the struggling *stars*

Eric

12:41

How aggressively do you think that teams will push pitchers on short rest in this accelerated postseason? There may be pitchers like Gerrit Cole who would prefer to pitch as much as possible, but my guess is that teams will be hesitant to push the boundaries given the trend toward more rest and shorter outings.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think it will depend on the team and the situation

Dan’s Grandpa’s Borscht

12:41

Alex Gordon retiring makes me feel very old.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I assumed he was going to just keep showing up in KC in April for $5 million for the next 25 years

Guest

12:42

How do you see the Central divisions finishing?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

They will finish on Sunday the 27th, which will end the 2020 regular season.

Guest

12:42

what's your yard like?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Had a bunch of growth removed, it's a pretty boring yard

It's hilly.

I don't do flowers and stuff

Dab

12:44

1 game to win, who do you trust more: Darvish or Hendricks? I know Yu has been better and has the higher ceiling on any given day, but I just trust Hendricks so much to go out and give you 6-7 competitive innings no matter what

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Here's where I would note that Hendricks has two game scores this year below 40 and Darvish hasn't had one since August 2019!

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