JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/19

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Bruce

12:34

Ive never heard a legit answer why the juiced ball helps everyone hit more HRs except the guys who were already hitting 45+ before. Is there empirical evidence that "those guys were already hitting it far enough" and never flew out to the warning track?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I'm not sure that it's not helping those guys

Cubs Fan

12:34

Can you say something to make me less sad?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Nelson

12:36

Seems this year based on a tiny sample size that teams that trot out their B lineups the day after clinching are winning more than they should be. Has anyone ever looked into this effect?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I have not.

Though I have found that teams that clinch early have a tendency to *very* slightly outperform what you expect from their seasonal WPCT in the playoffs

That could be one of the caues

OddBall Herrera

12:39

Brewers question - Can you remember a team ever having been this successful for this long with basically no one in the rotation? They've basically made the W.C. game two years in a row on the strength of a rotation that belongs on a rebuilding team.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

And it's not new for the Brewers!

12:40

Look at the Harvey Wallbanger-era Brewers pitching staff from 80-83. It was not good.

TC Bear

12:40

My wife, who is a Twin City native, says that beating the Yankees in the playoffs would be as big a deal to Minnesotans as a World Series victory. Are there any other similar one sided hatreds in MLB?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

O's Yankees.

Pretty much every team not Red Sox or Giants and Yankees

and Dodgers

Schiff

12:40

Will we have a new president by the start of the World Series?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

That quickly? No

Ben Dubose

12:41

Why does Fangraphs hate Bregman?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

They/we/it do?

Nick

12:41

At 29 years old and with 8 seasons in the majors, Andrelton Simmons has put up 27.2 dWAR (good for 14th all time); do you think he has a chance to break the all-time record of 44.2?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Yes

MayorMcCheese

12:41

Marcus Semien. That dude is having an excellent year. Legit? Ball fueled? (hey now)

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Fairly legit.

Billy Beane

12:41

Unless there is a game 163 or he pitches out of the bullpen over the final weekend Frankie Montas will end his season with a 3.00 FIP and 3.0 fWAR, which is a very satisfying silver lining to his disappointing PED-shortened breakout season.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Still can't fully make up for Khris Davis not finishing at .247

Matt

12:42

As a Yankees fan, I'm not particularly scared of the Astros. They're both very strong teams, and relatively evenly matched - what happens happens. That said, should I be rooting for the WC team to beat them, or would that likely mean that the WC team is coming in hot and arguably more dangerous (at that specific moment)?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Nah, it wouldn't mean much about the WC team

The O's can take the Astros in one game

Devil's Advocate

12:42

Barry Bonds is sitting at home right now wondering why he's accused of ruining the sanctity of baseball records, while MLB can decide to vaporize as many offensive benchmarks as they want by dicking with the ball (har har). Sure, the intra-season playing field is level, but inter-season, isn't a juiced ball a performance enhancement?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

It's more a stat-enhancement if everyone is doing it

12:43

the argument is when *some* can *choose* to get an enhancement

(though remember, based on the data, I'm a PED skeptic at the MLB level)

Kosch

12:43

Any idea why DRS (4th best) likes the Astros, but UZR doesn't?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Non identical data. There are going to be discrepancies

Matt

12:43

You're not involved in your beard growing decisions? Did you sell that right off? I'm just curious what the market rate is for buying someone's beard growing decisions.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Social pressure.

My beards are terrible.

Dan's uncle

12:44

How did you figure out caleb Smith gave up 8 more Homeruns than he should have?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

ZiPS has a built-in method that look at various stats, including statcast, to model how many HRs a pitcher "shoudl" allow

12:45

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/andrew-cashner-and-theoretical-home-run-sh...