JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

It's a chat!

No longer a Ms fan

12:02

Does ZIPs think the Seattle Mariners should disband as a baseball team? What a disappointment they are.

Dan Szymborski

12:02

If the White Sox get to stay together, the M's certainly do

12:03

Maybe they should bring back the trident logo as primary

Chooch

12:03

Do you have an opinion on home/away splits for starters? I'm not trying to say he hasn't pitched well this year, but the Phillies seem to be entertaining the idea of throwing Sanchez game 2 to get him a home start.

Does that enter your calculus going into a series; how would you go about planning your starters in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I haven't found that much value on it

There's *some* on player type, but it's small, and the home/away splits for individuals don't really mean much

Ben Lovelien

12:04

Who's your "unlikely hero" this postseason? Someone who will just go on a tear out of nowhere.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Probably a Royal because fate conspires to get their fans mad at me

Jackson Holliday

12:04

Are the O's getting healthy and peaking at the right time? Will I be platooned only in the playoffs? Is Dean Kremer a good enough playoffs #3 starter?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I woudln't say they're healthy now that Gryason Rodriguez is confirmed out!

tree

12:05

which projection system has been more accurate in the past, steamer or zips?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Roughly similar. Depends on what you look at.

I don't think there are many more gains to eke out in median proejctions, so most of the work has been focused on other things

Thank you for the chat!

12:05

If Trout wanted to move teams (and positions), where does he fit?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

DH! Most places

Hofheinz

12:06

Have you ever looked into different profiles of players decline differently as they age? I feel like I’ve heard players whose skill set is based on speed and athleticism decline more quickly than someone whose game is more focused on plate discipline or eye. But is that actually borne out?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

The "old player skills" vs. "young player skills" difference has some merit, but people take it as TOO determinative

Thank you for the chat!

12:06

How bad will the White Sox be next year? They're likely to trade away performer and not make major splashes. Is it possible we see a repeat of historical failure or more likely simple randomness of baseball increases their win total?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

They'll probably be better. They needed a have a lot go poorly EVEN for such a lousy roster, to be this lousy

Dave

12:06

In the playoff equipped teams article you mentioned Skubal being top of the 2025 WAR leaderboard. Are updated ZiPS leaderboards for future seasons publicly available anywhere? (As an aside, quite the jump for Skubal who started the year with the 42nd highest 2025 projected WAR)

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Some of that is IP - ZiPS only had him at 103 2/3 innings

12:08

While it's projecting 169 2/3 now

I dont' make those available. You'll have to wait for the 2025 rundowns!

Idiotic Failson

12:08

Assuming the Yankees sign Soto, what do you think they do with 3B next year? They can't keep trying to just hope the Platonic idea of DJ LeMahieu can give them any real number of games next year, and there's nothing really in the farm. Any chance they sign Bregman?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I actually mentally have them down as a likely Bregman home

Thank you for the chat!

12:10

Who are the top trade targets in the offseason for 1B/2B/3B?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I could see the O's trading Mountcastle

and I think Hoerner could be avialable given the config of the Cubs roster

SOMEONE would be interested in India I think

Jeremy

12:12

Do you still enjoy using and refining ZiPs? Or has it become less fun over the years, as the low-hanging fruit of forecasting has all been picked, making it much harder to improve ZiPs?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I do still enjoy it

There's always tinkering with the things it can do and model

Like adding JAWS to the model last year

and I'm still working on neural network approaches to saves

A's Daze

12:13

On my way to the last Coliseum game. Anything you want me to tell Mr. F?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Nothing printable

11 fWAR

12:13

So. You've never had to project a guy with more than one 11 fWAR season aside from Bonds. What is the most unlikely thing: that Judge did it once, that he did it AGAIN once he did it once, or that he not continue being very very good?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

It's extremely unlikely he'll stop being very very good in the near future

The risk profile is one-sided though for any ultra-elite star

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