JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/28/23

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I'm not sure there's a good answer in that situation

TomBruno23

12:57

I upgraded my MacBook to the new iOS and now it is running like it is 1985. Can you help? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I know nothing about Macs

I think the last time I used one regularly was in 3rd grade playing Oregon Trail

What Does the Z Stand For?

12:57

If the "Z" is supposed to stand for Szymborski, shouldn't it really be called SIPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

SIPS sounds like a hipster bar that sells just juice boxes

Who's Fabio?

12:58

Dan, did you get your 14 hours of sleep last night or are we going to lose you to a neck strain half way thru the chat?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

If you guys follow me on Twitter, you should know I don't sleep enough!

Guest

12:58

ok what did you hack into to get access to ZiPS Dan

Dan Szymborski

12:58

The creator wanted dinner in his oubliette

Dan

12:58

What's something that zips doesn't project or use for projections because people don't think it has a reliable affect on winning baseball games that we haven't ruled out as useful, something that is just not on the radar but could be useful in the future.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Physical characteristics

Scuba Steve

12:58

Will there ever be a time where teams use projections in arbitration? Or performance relative to projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

You'd have to change the CBA

I've done reports for arbitration hearings, but they never contained projections

The CBA contains things you're allowed to argue

Performance relative to the expected performance from algorithms written by a fat jerk is not one of those things

Steven B. Smythe

1:00

Is this is the beginning of the end for the Astros?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

No, it might be the end of the beginning though

or the beginning of the end of the middle

Guest

1:00

People don’t really seem to care much about 40/70 huh? Last year, Judge was all over TV chasing a team record

Dan Szymborski

1:00

It's cool, but it's also a new club

1:01

And really, the 41/68 club that he was in before the game was better than a 40/70 club

1:02

a 45/65 club would be even better

Slew

1:02

Does Zips have functionality to quantify how much we're all going to miss Francona?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I'm not magical

Dan

1:02

How many people in this chat would have batting average over 0.00 in a full season? How about OBP?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

The thing is, I worked on assumptions at the request of the person asking

You're going to run into a few hits

1:03

Because pitchers run into a few hits, even pitchers that have *no* experience batting past high school

1:05

If Randy Johnson could hit .125 swinging a bat like Lurch having a stroke, I'm sure most reasonably fit people between 20-40 will accidentally run into a hit from time to time

Tyler

1:05

Tuesday you wrote "There’s a reason ZiPS currently has the Braves with 29% odds of winning the World Series" and today it's at 21.2%, so could you share the reason, and why things changed dramatically?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

The ZiPS probabilities are entirely ZiPS and have a different methodology

the FG model is Steamer/ZIPS based with its own generalized model

Cat

1:05

Don’t mind me. I don’t give a rat’s “you know what” about your fancy chat. (Licks paw)

Zips user

1:05

Quentin Tarantino in a Sox jersey bodysurfing while channeling Tony LaRussa?

Dennis

1:05

If you're the Orioles are you still looking for an ace SP this winter? Between Bradish, Grayson, and Means the starters going into 2024 look a little better than they did a couple months ago.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

I still hope so

JRoth

1:06

Ke'Bryan Hayes now has over 300 PAs as a very good hitter, after 1100 as a subpar hitter. His Launch Angle has gone from 5.4º to 14.0º. Is he finally a star, or is it too early to tell?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

everything, everything will be alright, alright

Connecting…