JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/3/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

And they keep Clevinger for two more years.

Nathan

12:35

So is Dante Bichette a big Boba Fett fan since he named his kid Bo?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

CUE the image!

12:36

Travis

12:36

Does Ozuna get a big contract next season

Dan Szymborski

12:36

BIG contract? probably not. I don't think baseball's going to suddenly find corner outfielders sexy

12:37

But his gamble to sign a one year looks good

Lefty

12:37

The expanded playoffs have me caring very little about the regular season & its only 60 games. I couldn't imagine a full season with expanded playoffs

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Yeah, and you can see the care very little in the lack of actions of most of the top teams this deadline.

12:38

First or second for the Dodgers just doesn't matter.

And they know it.

Guest

12:38

Dan can you please move your chat time from my toddler's lunchtime (aka 12 pm eastern time) to my toddler's naptime (aka 1pm eastern time) so that I can participate more regularly. Thanks in advance

If you grant my rescheduling request. I will teach him(my toddler) that a folded piece of bread is not a sandwich and that chili doesn't have beans. If you refuse I will teach him that a taco is a type of sandwich and that skyline chili is the only true chili and all others are just soups.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

PROTECTIVE CHILI SERVICES IS COMING TO YOUR HOUSE

Fone Chiggins

12:38

The ZiPS projection for Josh Naylor in your article on The Greg Allen Trade is more optimistic than the 3 year projection on Naylor's player page. Is going from SD to CLE that much of a boon for him?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

The 3 year projections aren't updated like inseason onesa re

Cat Latos

12:39

Can i be friends with your cats?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Sure

Lorenzo

12:39

RIP Tom Terrific. Ironically, in his final season, he was traded to Boston in June 1986 and had 16 GS with 2.3 WAR.

LFC Mike

12:40

Who should get the worst of the punishment for the Rays Yanks scuffle the other night?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Honestly, Cash for the veiled threat in his quote

Guest

12:40

On a more serious note. Zips was much higher on Kyle Lewis than any of the other projection systems. Why do you think that was? Kyle Lewis was one of my top two break out candidates (Edwin Rios is the other). If you're interested in my methodology I'd be happy to share

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Was ZiPS much higher on Kyle Lewis? I remember ZiPS hating Lewis, were they even worse?

Numpty

12:41

Dan, I'm thinking of offering my services on one of those dog-walking apps. Any advice?

I should add, I have a job. It would mostly be to get out of the house and meet some new dogs.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

It's good to network, but they might get upset if you start keeping the dogs

Launch Angle™ Hosmer

12:42

Does either version of ZiPS (more robust offseason version or the inseason one) use exit velocity/other statcast batted ball data for its projectons?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

The former.

In-season? Eventually.

Guest

12:42

When/how did you get the idea to create ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Chris Dial and I were shootiong the shit on AOLIM in 1998 or so. Then I did something in the early 2000s

12:42

Padres paid a sizable fee for Austin Nola. They wouldn't do this just for him to be a part-timer, would they?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think they'll appreciate a certain amount of flexibility

Guest

12:43

Projection had him at 105 wrc+ vs like 90 for the other projection systems

I looked yesterday so maybe it has updated.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Ah, you mean now, not preseason.

It's hard to say. It's possible ZiPS is being too sticky in a very weird season.

The "why does ZiPS do X over Y projection system's Z" is always hard to answer because I don't know all the inner workiings of Steamer or PECOTA

LFC Mike

12:44

I fear "Guest" will feed his toddler Skyline Chili in a folded piece of bread. This could escalate quickly.....

12:45

With every start by Zac Gallen, the bar for Jazz Chisholm goes up. He was fantastic vs. the Dodgers last night. Hershiser said Gallen reminded him of Greg Maddux. Will ZIPs be bumping him up given his results?

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