JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/5/2019

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Dan Szymborski

12:16

The WC game winner might be the loser of the central!

12:17

The Nats are probably a larger threat in a theoretical NLDS than the NL Central teams

Bob

12:17

Isaac Paredes gets dinged by scouts for not having a typical infielder build. Could you go into more detail in what ZiPS likes so much about him? Does ZiPS has an opinion on his eventual defensive position and how good he might be there?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

From the scant minor league data, I have him as a below-average SS and a slightly above-average 3B.

ZiPS likes him because largely guys who play as decently as he did at a young age at fairly advanced levels tend to work out

Gub Gub

12:19

Can you answer today's questions with Transformer?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Not all of them, but SOME of them!

Transformer's answer:

Sure.

Why did a group of scientists, from different countries, try to make the most complicated machine of all time?

In the beginning, we had two goals. One was to do something that doesn't seem practical. The other was in order to try to find a common ground between different cultures that might lead to a useful innovation. And if that happens, we could create something very practical. Then we looked into it. We did some experiments with it, and it all ended up good.

What's the meaning of the Transformer?

It's a transformer that transmits your thoughts to the outside world. Because, at the core of our machine is the idea of a person. You just walk around and pick up the Transformer. Then you transmit to the outside world in order to create your own thoughts. If you take the Transformer away from its owner and do strange things around it, a certain number of people are affected; that's why it's called a machine.

Matthew E

12:20

If you're the Blue Jays, how do you sort through their various outfield options--Gurriel, Hernandez, Grichuk, McKinney, Fisher, Alford, Davis, and even maybe Pompey?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

high-stakes round robin tournament?

I think in the end, you play the better projected ones in 2020 and try to find playing time, either in MLB or AAA for the rest.

12:21

Avoid signing any veteran free agents for these roles, ideally

Option issues make this trickier.

Redleg Nation

12:21

Perhaps a bit early for this question but I'll shoot anyway. What move(s) would you like to see the Reds make this offseason to solidify their chances at October baseball? I need some hope over here.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I'm actually fairly hopeful about their 2020 roster!

12:23

And with apologies to Tucker Barnhart, I'd really like to see Grandal in Cincy

Matt

12:23

There is too much excitement on a Thursday for Dan SzymBOREski. Monday's were perfect.

Gub Gub

12:24

Is the Mountcastle strategery a brilliant plan to avoid late-season injury, or an Orioles plan to avoid relevance?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think in Mountcastle's case, it's a 40-man roster issue.

12:25

I would have liked to see Hays, but I believe they're being cautious because of his injury history

Matt

12:26

In the scenario where Stanton comes back within the next week, and look putrid for the final 2.5 weeks of the season...he has to watch the postseason from his couch, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think it's hard to cut him from the roster as long as he's around

Matt

12:26

With Severino coming back from injury, and German approaching an "innings limit" (in the sense that it would represent a new career high...by a lot)...and Happ being incredibly ineffective. How would you deploy them in the Post Season? Happ with an opener and German/Sevy caddying each other (3-4 IP each)? Leave Happ off the roster and German & Sevy each get openers? Some other different option?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I think you try to rest them as much as you can in September (the Yankees have a 10 game lead) and try to not be too cute in the postseason.

Guest

12:27

Dan, I don’t completely understand your focus on letting young players play at the MLB level to see what they have. Isn’t that what the minors are for? How much more valuable is MLB data than AAA data? It seems like it would be better to retain a year of control instead of playing them in a wasted year. Obviously, this is from the team’s point of view and the fan would likely rather see developing young players instead of watching a bunch of veterans lose.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Usually, we're talking about players with nothing left to prove in AAA.

And I believe that with talent, you have to *challenge* it as much as possible. The hottest fire makes the strongest steel and all that.

(I am not a blacksmith and am not sure if the saying is true).

12:28

And we can do a lot with minor league numbers, I'm one of the biggest advocates around (and I don't just mean belly size)

But the best indicator of playing in MLB is still playing in MLB.

I didn't think Tauchman was anywhere as good as he's played this year.

12:29

But he had like a .950 and 1.000 OPS the final two years in AAA

Would he really be learning to go against MLB pitching by putting an 1.100 OPS against guys not good enough to be in MLB?

Tim's Neighbor

12:30

Are the AAA HR numbers going to cause ZIPS to have a mental breakdown requiring ZIPS to spend a long weekend at some sort of digital spa?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

The translations have a built in adjustment for level of league offense!

There are a lot of funny, classic PCL type translations

For example, translations actually projected Billy ashley perfectly

And you'll see no drop in raw stats from some of the pitchers.

Mookie

12:32

Mookie Betts is way more valuable to the Red Sox next year than whatever the Red Sox would get in return for the right to pay him $30 million right? As a Sox fan I cringe when people seriously suggest it because I’m pretty sure I’m right.

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