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Dave Cameron 2017 Trade Value Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:01
Happy Friday, everyone.
While Wednesday's site outage kept me from chatting mid-week, this works out better anyway, as I can now answer questions about the whole list.
12:02
We'll focus primarily on the Trade Value series, but I'm sure there are plenty of Jose Quintana questions too, so we'll work those in.
And maybe some other deadline stuff.
Mike
12:02
Is the only thing keeping Judge from being #1 another 3 months of sample size?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Well, depends on what he does in those next three months. If he puts up another +5 WAR second half, then yeah, he might fight Correa for the top spot. If he turns into something closer to what the projections are forecasting, then he's probably still not cracking the top five. Keep in mind, he's as old as Trout is.
CarrotJuice
12:03
Based on the actual return for Quitana, where would you have ranked him on the trade value series?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Right about where he was ranked. I think the deal was pretty much fair, and confirms that we're estimating trade value decently.
Heisenberg
12:04
Where would Alex Wood end up on your list, if we knew w/ 100% certainty he would stay healthy?
Dave Cameron
12:04
Well, is he the only pitcher we get to know that about? Because if so, maybe the top 30? But he nearly made the 41-50 range even with his injury history.
Zonk
12:04
Your adoring fans demand a Negative Trade Value article!  Do you plan to write one this year?
Dave Cameron
12:04
I do plan to write one this year!
Jeff's Friend
12:05
You don't think you jumped the gun at all with Judge's top 10 placement? He's been great, but how high does his BA have to be for him to keep his spot?
Dave Cameron
12:05
This is the fun thing with Judge; lots of people think he's too high, lots think he's too low.
Not an easy guy to place, obviously.
Ned Yost
12:05
I have a hard time believing that if you surveyed MLB execs/scouts, a majority would take Trea Turner over Gary Sanchez. What's the reasoning there?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I did survey MLB execs and scouts, and most of them preferred Turner. Sanchez is a big dude, and not everyone thinks he's going to stay behind the plate for long, even with his great arm.
He's already shown some receiving issues this year.
Turner's just a much safer bet to stay at a premium position, and his athleticism will probably age better.
Rick C
12:07
I recall last offseason you said Freeman would not get as much back in a trade as Sale would... didn't take long for that to change I guess.
Dave Cameron
12:07
Last off-season, that was probably true. Then Freeman ran a 200 wRC+ for a while.
He got better.
It happens.
Geoff
12:08
What does Clint Frazier need to do over the 2nd half to make breaking into next year's top 50 a strong possibility (I assume he'll get ABs with the Yankees and in AAA)?
Dave Cameron
12:09
Show he can hit big league pitching.
Frazier's tools are exciting, but his minor league track record is pretty meh.
There's a reason our forecasts project him for a 93 wRC+ rest of season.
Zonk
12:09
Speaking of trade value, why do IFA slots consistently change hands for seemingly so little?  As highly as teams value prospects, why isn't the opportunity to get more prospects valued more?
Dave Cameron
12:10
IFA slots aren't about getting more prospects, usually; it's about paying a smaller tax on the overage.
Most of the time, these trades for IFA money are done after all the deals are agreed to, and everyone knows who is signing who.
So a team that has agreed to bonuses above what they were allotted trades for money to reduce the penalties for going over.
Mark
12:11
Indians, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Cubs all have 2 players in the top trade value chart. Which has the brightest future?
Dave Cameron
12:12
The Dodgers, probably. They have so many guys that have a ton of value that didn't quite crack this list. Kershaw, for instance. Wood, we've already mentioned. Turner almost made it.
12:13
And they have Seager/Bellinger.
And unlimited money.
Bryzzo
12:13
No relievers made your list.  Yet, in recent history relievers have changed hands for big returns (Kimbrel, Chappy, Miller, Giles).  How do you square that?
Dave Cameron
12:13
None of the guys traded for those relievers made the list either.
TKDC
12:13
With how popular the trade value series is, would Fangraphs consider doing a bracket challenge surrounding it. For example, you fill in all 50 spots and you get 2 points for each correct spot, and 1 point if you are off by no more than 2 spots. Winner gets a free FG T-shirt.
Dave Cameron
12:13
That's a fun idea. We'll try to do that next year.
Logan Davis
12:14
Which franchise has the least cumulative trade value among its assets? The most?
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