Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
10:48
So, as you guys can see, we're testing out a new piece of chat software today. I chose today for the test run since I expect this will be a lower traffic day, given Thanksgiving tomorrow, so while we're still going to answer your questions, I also wanted to use this to get some feedback from you guys on how the software is working (or not working). So feel free to let me know what you guys see, and we'll play around with this system to see if it's something we want to switch over to.
11:58
Alright, since this is a bit of a beta test for this new software (built by a FG reader, by the way), we'll start a couple of minutes early. Definitely interested in hearing your feedback as we go along.
Andrew
11:59
Now baseball related...when evaluating a past free agent contract, should the distribution of production be taken into account? If we were to look at Shane Victorino from '13-'15 - $39 million for a total of about 6 wins, but all 6 wins came over the course of a single season. Is that more valuable, less valuable, or equally as valuable as if he were to have 3 2-win seasons?
Dave Cameron
12:00
There are differing schools of thought on this answer, with some people absolutely convinced that wins are non-linearly valuable, so a +6 WAR season is worth way more than three +2 WAR seasons. I don't think that's really true in practice, though, at least not to a huge degree. If there's a multiplier, I think it's probably something like 1.1x instead, so maybe one +6 WAR season is worth +6.6 WAR compared to three +2 WAR seasons being worth +6 WAR, or something to that effect.
Eric
12:01
up or under, 50% chance Redsox land David Price?
Dave Cameron
12:02
I'd say under, because he might just not want to play there, and at some point, the marginal difference between $220 million versus $205 million or something isn't going to change his lifestyle.
Pollard St
12:02
Are the Nationals more likely to have Chapman or O'Day on their 2016 roster?
Dave Cameron
12:02
O'Day. I think if they wanted to pay the price for Chapman, they'd have done so in July. He's less valuable to them now.
CoolWinnebago
12:04
Hi Dave - would it make sense for a NL SP with reasonable job security to rest his arm all winter and concentrate on hitting? Keep in mind that I have no idea what the normal offseason program for a SP is.
Dave Cameron
12:05
I would imagine that a pitcher would lose more value by focusing heavily on improving his offense rather than working on refining his pitching. Pitching talent isn't fixed, and guys are always working to add new wrinkles, improve flaws, and figure out ways to adjust to declining stuff as they get older. Making those adjustments, or preparing to do so, is more important than trying to go from a .150 hitter to a .160 hitter.
striker
12:05
Your thoughts on Chris Taylor as a SS for the White Sox? What would Hahn have to surrender?
Dave Cameron
12:06
I don't think he's going to hit much, so I don't see him as a blocked prospect as much as a good fit as a job-share guy with Marte in Seattle. That gives them a bat-first SS and a glove-first SS, so I doubt Dipoto is in a hurry to weaken their depth there.
@outfieldgrass24
12:07
If the Dbacks were to sign Maeda and Kazmir, plus trade for one or two very good but non-elite RPs (Will Smith, AJ Ramos), does that give them a chance in the NL West?
Dave Cameron
12:07
A chance, maybe. But they're still a good ways behind LAD and I don't know that they have the flexibility to make those moves this winter.
The Dude Abides
12:07
So I like the look of the new software so far.
Dave Cameron
12:08
Good to hear. We were definitely looking for something minimalist, and I like that this isn't trying to do too much from a visual perspective.
oz10
12:08
Does Ozuna's skill set translate well to Safeco? Good power in the minors but it seems like power can get lost there. Any chance he's a decent bounce back candidate?
Dave Cameron
12:08
He has power to all fields, which is necessary for an RH hitter there, since the LCF area is brutal. It's not really an ideal park for any RHB, but he would get hurt less than a strict-pull guy.
Kerry
12:09
Thoughts on the Mariners possibly landing Marcell Ozuna? What would be a logical piece or package they would have to dangle to get him?
Dave Cameron
12:09
I would think the deal would have to be built around Paxton. Karns and Elias shouldn't be good enough for the Marlins, and Dipoto loves Walker.
guayzimi
12:09
Do you think the weakest link in a fangraphs chat is the software or the content?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Well, if you think the content isn't worth your time, then there's nothing we can do about that. But we can try to improve the process of getting questions answered, which is why we're exploring our options.
Jacob
12:10
Hi Dave, Happy Thanksgiving. The whole Twitter world (or at least my timeline) is an absolute David Price frenzy. He's apparently favouring the Jays! Then there are reports saying that even the Jays know they have no shot. I know this is the silly season, but what is your read on this? Posturing to get more money from Boston or the Cubs? Or what?
Dave Cameron
12:11
I don't see him going back there; Shapiro isn't a throw-money-at-the-top-FA kind of executive. They'd probably top out at 5/$150M or something, and he'll do way better than that elsewhere.
Joel
12:11
What could Dipoto land for Trumbo who is predicted to make in the $9M range in arbitration? Doesn't seem like he could get much...
Dave Cameron
12:11
A mid-level prospect. Keep in mind that Mike Morse got 2/$16M on the open market last winter, so there are still teams willing to pay premiums for RH power with no other skills. Trumbo would do better than 1/$9M as an FA, so he has a little value.
Jordan
12:12
I've heard more Mariners rumors the last two weeks than I have in the last few years. If you ran a team would you hide your rumors and shut out the press, or more/less broadcast them as we see happening here.
Dave Cameron
12:14
Maybe my perspective is different, but I didn't see any rumors about the Martin/Wilhelmsen trade before it went down. The Iannetta thing came out a while ago, but that was a pretty obvious connection anyway, and isn't the kind of thing where being secretive is going to get you any big advantage.
Scrapper
12:15
Looks good so far. So on to the questions! Would the Cubs be better off with Price or Zimmerman + Samardzija? Assume that the total cost outlay would be comparable, say around $190-200 million.
Dave Cameron
12:16
I don't think there's any way you get those two for $190M, honestly. I had Zimmerman at $140M and Samardzija at $75M in my free agent predictions, I think, and that's not accounting for the fact that those totals would have a higher present value because you'd be paying more up front, since Samardzija's deal won't be seven years.
sup bro
12:16
What do you love and hate most about Thanksgiving?
Dave Cameron
12:17
It's hard to go wrong with a food-centered holiday. Trying to figure out how to avoid political talk with the in-laws is always tricky, though.
Curtis
12:17
If Ozuna ends up in Seattle what moves would seemingly be left for the Mariners? They've been busy...better?
Dave Cameron
12:18
I doubt Dipoto keeps Trumbo, especially if he adds an RH hitter in Ozuna to play RF. And if they trade one of their SPs, they'll need to add at least one more, since they're thin there. And the bullpen needs work.
Joel
12:18
According to the FG Free Agent tracker we've only seen 9 FA deals get done (3 of which are qualifying offer deals)? Does that seem low, or is that about par for the course?
Dave Cameron
12:18
No question the FA decisions are going slower this year. I think the later start to the off-season has more people just deciding to take things to the winter meetings.
Bret
12:18
Lots of David Price talk in Toronto. While we don't know what Toronto will do, I hear a lot of talk about how it's risky to commit ~20-25% of your payroll to one player. Payroll concerns are obviously legitimate, but you can also argue a contending team is better off with David Price and a $110M payroll than no David Price and a $140M payroll.
Dave Cameron
12:19
Of course. Every team would theoretically be better with a higher payroll.
Pollard St
12:19
Can you think of a better single year pitching duo than 2015 Greinke/Kershaw?
Dave Cameron
12:19
2001-2002 Johnson/Schilling.
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