Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
powered byJotCast
Dave Cameron
11:48
So, this will probably be a boring chat, since nothing is really going on. No big trades last night or anything.
11:52
Obviously, the Shelby Miller trade is probably going to dominate the day, but we'll work on getting to other stuff too. Maybe. I don't know. The Shelby Miller trade!
We're going to start a few minutes early today, since the queue is already full, so let's get this fired up.
Kurt Bevacqua
11:53
Think we're done with major moves for the Winter Meetings? Seems quiet, like some folks may have found earlier flights home.
Dave Cameron
11:54
Some GMs might catch the last flight out tonight, but probably only the ones who are sure they're not going to do anything. I'd imagine every team in baseball is trying to figure out how to call Dave Stewart and do something today, so even if they don't have something obvious, they're going to be trying.
The Dude
11:54
Did you see the ZiPS projections on Adam Warren? Do you really think he's a mid 3 WAR SP, and a 1-1.5 WAR RP?
Dave Cameron
11:54
Yeah, I'm with Szymborski on taking the under by a good amount. I'd see him as more of an average starter or a solid reliever.
Oz10
11:54
Have you seen many trades worse than DBacks-Braves from yesterday? Just by process and not results, it seems pretty awful.
Dave Cameron
11:55
By process or results, it's an absolute disaster. It's worse than Kemp/Grandal and maybe worse than Jones/Bedard. By process you could maybe argue Wells/Napoli was worse, but the Braves will benefit more from this deal than Toronto did from that one.
The Dude
11:55
Does the Miller trade indicate that the Dbacks have faith in Tomas as everyday OF? Do you have faith in him?
Dave Cameron
11:56
I don't know that they had much choice but to have faith in him; they still owe him like $60 million over the next five years, and they weren't going to just keep him around as a 4th OF at that price. I wouldn't be surprised if he improved a decent amount this year, but he can improve a lot and still be terrible.
Larry Bernandez
11:56
Inciarte alone should have been an overpay for Miller, no?
Dave Cameron
11:57
No, Inciarte for Miller would have been fair. With the way pitching and defense are priced on the open market, I think you could have even made a case for Inciarte and Blair for Miller, if the Braves threw in a second smaller thing. But including Swanson is insanity.
Jack
11:57
Are the Mets better off without Zobrist? Does it depend on what they do instead?
Dave Cameron
11:58
Always depends on what the other options are, but Zobrist is good and signed for a good price, so hard to see them having clearly better options.
Carson Cistulli
11:58
If the reports of the Marlins making the demand of Joc / C. Seager / Urias / two others from LAD in exchange for Fernandez are accurate, do you think they actually intend to get a deal done? Or are they just trying to find the team that will overpay the most?
Dave Cameron
11:58
Yeah, at that point, they're just telling people he's not available.
Corey
11:59
How do the braves not trade Freddie Freeman at this point? Think they can be good before his contract is up?
Dave Cameron
12:00
This trade makes that significantly more possible. They now have a real CF, a franchise SS who could easily be ready by 2017, and another potential quality starter who is close to the big leagues. This trade makes their short-term better, not worse. And their long-term. All the Braves terms got better last night.
Aaron
12:00
I really enjoyed August Fagerstrom's article about Jason Heyward playing CF. Do you think Alex Gordon could play CF competently if signed by the Cubs, who have below average defense at the corners?
Dave Cameron
12:00
No, a lot of Gordon's defensive value is tied to his arm, so his range would be exposed in CF.
Kyler
12:01
How does the Inciarte acquisition affect Mallex Smith? Will Inciarte simply move to a corner when Smith is ready, with other moves happening at that time?
Dave Cameron
12:01
Yep. Or maybe the Braves won't keep Inciarte; they could theoretically flip him for a worse-but-also-useful outfielder and more stuff if they wanted.
Roberto
12:01
At this point, would you consider the Cubs the favorites in the NL Central next year? I'm somewhat worried about the long term implications of the deals to aging guys but the 2016 team should be pretty good, especially once they add a CF. Warren > Hammel should help in the rotation as well.
Dave Cameron
12:02
I don't think Warren displaces Hammel in the rotation. Warren is the perfect #6 starter, a guy who can pitch well in relief and then step in if someone gets hurt. But yes, the Cubs might be the best team in baseball right now.
Brandon
12:02
Which player fits in Texas better? Napoli or Pearce?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Pearce.
Ranger
12:02
I agree the Miller trade was an overpay. How much of that deal has to do with the increasing price for mid level pitchers?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Zero. The D'Backs had deals for similar quality pitchers on the table for just Inciarte. They just don't know how to value talent.
Cubs
12:03
Do you like swapping Castro for Zobrist and Warren?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Impossible to not like it, I think. Unless you're a Cardinals or Pirates fan.
dom
12:03
In a vacuum would you rather have Zobrist for ages 35-38 or Castro for 26-29 at half the $?
Dave Cameron
12:03
That's not the option the Cubs were choosing between so it's a pointless question.
Phillies113
12:04
I realize that a "win is a win", but is it possible that teams value wins provided by a pitcher differently than those provided by a position player? Maybe the $8m/WAR shouldn't be used to assess both pitchers and players.
Dave Cameron
12:04
Most FA SP contracts have been right in line with $8M/win expected price. Relievers are definitely higher, as we've talked about before.
Ranger
12:04
Miller will only be due around $5 million next year, and like only $20 million for his contract. Compare that with the price it will take for Mike Leake or look at what Samardjiza got. (Accidently hit enter earlier, wanted to add this). I think part of this trade boiled down to the Diamondbacks finances piling up and the high price of starters.
Dave Cameron
12:05
He'll make something closer to $25M in arbitration over the next three years, but yes, the low cost absolutely factored into why they went after him. But this is the kind of package you give up to get Carlos Carrasco, not Shelby Miller. Miller isn't the only cheap available starter.
Jason Heyward
12:05
Who is the favorite to sign me?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Cardinals
DaveS
12:05
What'll it take for the Cubs to get Lucroy from the Brewers? And is it worth it?
Load More Messages
Connecting...