Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:00
Alright, let's get this chat fired up.
12:01
For those who haven't seen it, Jeff Passan just noted on Twitter than the Dodgers and White Sox are nearing a trade that would send CHW's top pitching prospect Frankie Montas to LA. It could be lots of things, but Yasiel Puig seems to be the most obvious thing that LAD would want to move for young talent that would interest CHW.
So we can speculate about that, or talk about other off-season stuff.
JL
12:01
Where does Cespedes land? Tigers? Nationals? Rangers? Somewhere completely random?
Dave Cameron
12:02
Tigers, in an Ilitch-engineered deal in January, probably makes the most sense. If they're really going for it, they're a player or two short, and he'd help them a lot. No point pushing in halfway.
Ringtone Composer
12:02
Over the past 4 weeks, have the Braves made themselves much better in the long run?
Dave Cameron
12:03
Much better might be an overstatement, but the Miller deal was a big win. You can't fix your franchise with one trade, though, and there's a lot more work to do.
Craig in Chicago
12:03
So, EVERY writer is in the tank for the darling Cubs? They spend more at 2b to get 34 yr old with little speed and an inferior dWAR. They spend >$30M on a 37 yr old SP that projects the same as Hammel and Hendricks. Then they spend > $180 on a light hitting RF, with intentions on moving him to CF? Am I taking crazy pills? Why not spend on Price and do none of the others? Who bats lead off, now? Won't their defense be putrid, with Schwarber, Soler, Bryant, and Zobrist?
Dave Cameron
12:05
Yes, it must be that we're in the tank. An elite career defender is clearly a bad fielder now because he had one bad defensive season while playing through a knee injury. John Lackey is bad because he projects as good as other good pitchers. Jason Heyward's career 118 wRC+ makes him a light-hitter but Yoenis Cespedes and his 121 wRC+ is an offensive monster. Bryant is bad at defense because he's big, ignoring the fact that he was actually quite good at 3B last year. Facts will not interfere with my reality!!!!
TJ
12:05
Hi Dave, What is a better option for the Cubs in CF , trade for someone like Inciate , Marisnick or Ozuna , sign a FA such as Span , Jackson or Fowler , or keep Heyward in CF for this year until Almora is ready next year ?
Dave Cameron
12:07
Depends on how worried they are about their rotation. If they want to get another top-end guy to protect against Arrieta potentially breaking down, trading Soler and Baez for a guy like Carrasco, then signing Span, is probably their best course of action. But that would kick a solid pitcher out of the rotation and leave the team thin in the OF, so I might be more tempted to trade for a young CF and figure out the pitching staff in July.
xx
12:07
Does either side do Jorge Soler for Odubel Herrera?
Dave Cameron
12:08
Phillies would definitely do that.
Cubs would not./
Bryce
12:08
What are the odds the Dodgers end up as the third-place team in the NL West?
Dave Cameron
12:09
It could happen, but I think they'll enter the year as easy favorites according to the projections. They still look like the best team in the division even after SF/ARI have spent their money, and LAD hasn't done anything yet.
For what its worth, Passan just said Puig not in the LAD/CHW deal.
Brett W
12:10
I think a key part of public sentiment being understated in the player option debate is the possibility that the player opts out, signs with the new team, and then suffers a performance crater. Without a player option, the first team is paying for that performance loss. This is not THE factor but it is a factor.
Dave Cameron
12:11
This is simply wrong. In any scenario where the player opts out, its because he has positive value. Any player with positive value can be dumped at almost any time, assuming a team didn't give him a full no-trade clause. Even if a team doesn't want to go through the trouble of negotiating a trade, they can just put him on waivers and let a claiming team have him, getting essentially the same outcome as if he'd opted out.
The idea that the player option creates a scenario for the team to get out of the end of a contract where that option did not exist otherwise is incorrect. It simply shifts the decision from the team to the player.
12:13
Now, you can argue that the team gets some benefit from having the player make the decision -- it probably isn't easy to just let a productive player on an under-market deal go if you have a choice -- and there's a potential draft pick compensation that could be realized that wouldn't exist in the waiver scenario, but these small benefits are swamped by the risk of a team talking themselves into an even larger second extension, ala Sabathia, A-Rod, etc...
So the LA/CIN deal is now a three way. Todd Frazier is in the deal.
12:14
Frazier to CHW it appears
_David_
12:15
If hypothetically Greinke were to tell a reporter before the season started "'@&$% this front office" -and go into detail about why the trade sucked, what would be the team do? Are there image clauses in contracts? Would they try to trade him in July even if they are good?
Dave Cameron
12:16
You can fine a player for conduct detrimental to the team. Depending on what he said, he could even be suspended.
Nelson
12:16
Did you change your mind in regards to some opt-outs being win-win? After you convinced me otherwise last week?
Dave Cameron
12:16
No, opt-outs are always player friendly. Contracts including opt-outs can be win-win if the team gets a big enough discount on the salary in order to justify including one, though.
12:17
Jose Peraza and two other prospects going to the Reds.
White Sox getting Frazier, Reds getting prospects, Dodgers getting...?
Jason
12:18
Todd Frazier to the White Sox. That's... interesting. Weird team.
Dave Cameron
12:18
They're clearly trying to win while they have Chris Sale's prime. The division isn't great. I still don't love their execution but the plan is reasonable.
12:19
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
#Dodgers getting Montas, Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson, per @JonHeymanCBS.
12:20
Okay, so it looks like the Dodgers swapped one trio of prospects for another trio, helping CHW trade for CIN because maybe those two couldn't quite match-up on guys they liked.
trade with CIN, I should say.
Joe
12:21
Who would get the biggest contract if they were FA right now? Machado, Arrenado, or Donaldson?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Machado
Luke
12:21
What do the Pirates need to do to keep pace in the NL Central?
Dave Cameron
12:21
They need another starting pitcher or two, and they need Polanco to turn into a star.
_David_
12:22
What do you think of Sam Miller's (EW podcast) assertion that teams so rarely get surplus value on the back end of pitching contracts that the upside the team loses if the pitcher is good enough to opt out is really low and thus opt outs are not a big deal and useful for the team as a negotiating concession?
Dave Cameron
12:23
It's not a terrible point, but I think players realize this too, and aging pitchers are less likely to give up significant value to get an opt-out in their deal. Notice how Greinke didn't bother asking for one this time around.
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