Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:00
Alright, let's get this thing started.
12:01
I'm switching days with August this week because his internet got torched by AT&T.
12:02
But he'll be back tomorrow, theoretically, for all those who demand more Fagerstrom.
Ryan
12:02
Wouldn't it make sense for the Braves to bring back Justin Upton? Structure a deal with low salary for 2016, we supposed to ramp up spending next year, but the FA market is horrible. We need to strike now. Don't let a 2nd round pick stand in the way...
Dave Cameron
12:03
Yeah, there's probably a point at which his price comes down low enough that next year's spenders try to get in and get a discount. But I don't know that Upton's both going to want to take a discount and sign with a team that is going to be terrible. If he's going cheap, might as well go to a winner, or a ballpark that can pad his stats.
Joe G
12:04
Better course of action for ChiSox: Sign Upton/Cespedes or Parra + back end of rotation arm? Obviously have a need at SS too, but not sure where that fits in.
Dave Cameron
12:04
They don't have enough money to fill all their holes. Probably easier to sign bats right now and then hope to get lucky on a lottery ticket pitcher.
Sean P
12:05
How deep should a team that wants to contend be when it comes to starting pitching? Looking at the Cubs and Dodgers specifically, they seem to really value having depth with their starting staff.
Dave Cameron
12:06
For teams with eyes on contending, it is often just as important to raise your floor as your ceiling, which is what these depth moves are designed to do. Giving 400 innings to replacement level scrubs can sink your season, so having 6-7 decent starters with prospects ready for the second half is a good way to avoid finding yourself in that scenario.
UKJaysFan
12:06
If the Jays go into this season with their current roster, do you think it's a good bet they'll make the playoffs again?
Dave Cameron
12:06
No team in the AL is a good bet to make the playoffs.
Bob
12:06
As a Jays fan, I have a tough time getting my head around the 2016 projected standings. That was no fluke in 2015 and the team could be better now. Where's the love gone?
Dave Cameron
12:07
There's no way this team is better than last year's team.
Tom
12:07
What punishmen, if any, would you administer against the cardinals if you were Commissioner?
Dave Cameron
12:08
I find it hard it difficult to believe that Correa actually kept the information he accessed to himself -- you're not looking at another team's trade notes on July 31st, but not saying anything to anyone about what you found -- so I'd hit them pretty hard. Loss of multiple first round picks, a big fine, international signing restrictions.
Thatguy
12:08
Hey Dave, thanks for giving Farnsworth the reins for the prospect analysis on your site, he does excellent work! I was wondering if Dan will have a weekly prospects chat sometime down the road?
Dave Cameron
12:09
He will indeed, but for now, we want to make sure he has enough time to get all 30 team reports done in a timely fashion, so we're trying to keep his plate semi-clear.
Chris
12:09
Ian Kennedy is probably going to regret turning down the QO, right?
Dave Cameron
12:10
No, he'll get 3/33 or something from someone eventually.
Andrew
12:10
How big would the jackpot need to get before the expected value of a Powerball ticket was over $2? Are you playing?
Dave Cameron
12:11
I haven't done the math, but I'm pretty sure that the EV is still negative at this point. I'm not playing, and I'd encourage anyone reading this chat to take whatever money you're thinking about using to buy tickets and shove it in an index fund instead.
Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus
12:11
Who is the starting LF in Toronto this season? Is it a platoon of Saunders/Pompey? I just read where Saunders has recovered from his knee injury. He seemed poised on a breakout before the injury. Thoughts on LF in Tor?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Yeah, Saunders/Pompey/Carrera.
Cody
12:12
is it possible to insert stats into a WAR calculator to see what theoretical WAR a player could have? like, if Bryce had hit 63 homers instead of 42, what that would have done to his WAR and other stats? does fangraphs or could fangraphs ever offer a fun thing like that?
Dave Cameron
12:12
We actually have something kind of like that being built out right now, so yes, you'll have that kind of tool in the not too distant future.
Andrew
12:13
If the Royals completely blow away the projections again this year, would it merit looking closer at the projection system? How many years would you need before you deemed it wasn't random variation?
Dave Cameron
12:14
It's always worth looking at the underlying reasons for the differences. But the projections have actually been pretty close to correct for the Royals in terms of context-neutral performance, which is what the forecasts are trying to evaluate. The question of context-specific performance/sequencing isn't really a projection issue.
12:15
If the Royals can sequence their runs in the most beneficial way possible for a third straight year, I guarantee you we won't be the only ones trying to figure out whether their model is sustainable in other circumstances.
Jon D
12:15
If the White Sox sign an OF capable of playing either corner would you move Melky Cabrera to DH or Avisail Garcia to the bench?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Garcia isn't a major league regular on a team trying to win.
BT-in-VT
12:16
Who do you like better 2016...Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey?
Dave Cameron
12:16
Fernandez on a per start basis, Harvey on a quantity basis.
Shrug emoji
12:16
Hi Dave, I was hoping you could weigh in on Aaron Hicks. I've never heard such a wide range of opinions on a guy. He's been touted as the next Carlos Gomez, but at the same time, the Yankees clearly view him as a 4th OF. Which side should I believe?
Dave Cameron
12:16
I wouldn't say the Yankees clearly view him as a fourth OF; they've been trying to trade Gardner all winter with the idea that Hicks could replace him pretty easily.
MSW
12:17
Am I right to be annoyed with Alderson for complaining that Cespedes in CF is a square peg when he's counting on an even worse defender in De Aza? Any other CF options that might fit, like Blackmon?
Dave Cameron
12:17
Juan Lagares is a perfectly capable major league starting center fielder. De Aza is a depth piece. Stop whining about center field, Mets fans.
MSW
12:18
Do you think the Mets have some kind of data supporting the notion that defense doesn't matter? They're going in to the season with a below average defender at every position except pitcher.
Dave Cameron
12:18
No, because defense absolutely does matter. It matters less when you strike out as many guys as their pitchers do, but they're making a conscious decision to trade defense for offense.
Lawrence
12:18
Any chance Cespedes agrees to a one year deal with the Mets? Even if other teams offer 2 or 3 years, the Mets seem like the most appealing choice to get back to the WS from a free agent's point of view. If they do.......would it make the Mets favorites in the East?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Cespedes will get 5-7 years.
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