Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:21
I would think McGee or Boxberger actually make more sense for CHC.
Cubsfan
12:23
Can Jason Heyward cut it in center? His defensive value seems like it takes a huge hit with the move especially basically having to cover all of left field
Dave Cameron
12:23
He'll probably be okay there. I'm not as worried about Heyward in CF as I am what their OF will look like if he gets hurt. They have no depth.
CamdenWarehouse
12:24
Re: Puig's peak - that is an awfully early peak. Do you think there is an age misrepresentation going on?
Dave Cameron
12:25
No, that has been heavily reduced in recent years thanks to changes in governmental oversight.
Donny Baseball
12:26
Safer bet to have a better season, Cueto, JZimmerman, both health and stat wise?
Dave Cameron
12:26
Cueto
Jim
12:27
Could (and if so, should) the Mariners turn Paxton into Charlie Blackmon?
Dave Cameron
12:27
I don't think Blackmon would be a big upgrade over what they have in the OF, and they don't have enough high level pitching depth to spare, so no.
Justin
12:28
Who has the best season - Grichuk, Piscotty or Tommy Pham?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Piscotty.
The Dude of NY
12:28
You referred to Teheran as a mediocre pitcher. Does that mean you think his league average production from 2013-2014 was a fluke, or would you consider that mediocre?
Dave Cameron
12:28
Yeah, mediocre was just another way of saying average. He's fine, perfectly useful, but not any kind of high-value asset.
Tom
12:30
Do you think the Phillies will make any big moves next offseason, like Strasburg?
Dave Cameron
12:30
I don't think the elite FAs will be signing up to play for a team coming off a 100 loss season, no.
popoppopopppop
12:30
Re: Coors messing up road performance -- is it because players who play half their games there learn to sell out contact for power, or is there more to it?
Dave Cameron
12:31
We don't know for sure, but I'd bet that it's doing to pitches moving differently at altitude.
Matt
12:31
May I offer a counterpoint? I'm not really sure why you profile Teheran as mediocre. He had a poor year last year, sure, but was on a strong upward trend before that. Given his age, contract and profile as a 3-4 WAR player, I think his value is still pretty high. Benintendi, a #4 starter, and an extraneous catcher who missed last year to injury seems pretty fair to me.
Dave Cameron
12:33
He doesn't profile as a 3-4 WAR player. Career FIP- of 106, xFIP- of 104. His low ERAs in '13/'14 were based on unsustainably high strand rates. Even if we give him some credit for hit prevention, he's a slightly above average starter, and that's before factoring in that his stuff is declining in quality. Pitcher aging is a hill, not a curve.
Curtis
12:36
is the more accurate value of a "closer" the ability to get both hands out as opposed to saves?
Dave Cameron
12:36
Yep. There is some truth to the idea that some guys are better used in earlier innings because of their platoon splits. The great setup guys who can't close are mostly guys who suck against opposite handed hitters.
Bork
12:37
How bad is the Mets OF defense going to be?
Dave Cameron
12:37
I'd guess a little below average. Their IF defense will be among the worst in the league, though.
NotCubsFan
12:38
Do you see the Cubs playing Schwarber predominantly at catcher or do you think the lack of OF depth means they play him 40% or more in LF?
Dave Cameron
12:38
I'd bet he gets 80% of his ABs in the OF, 10% at C, 10% at DH when they play in the AL.
Josh
12:38
Re Cubs OF defense: I think Heyward will be okay, as you say, but it seems they are below avg at the corners and having an okay CF won't make up for the rest. Schwarber is not great out there and having an above avg CF would help cover that
Dave Cameron
12:39
I think it's mostly a myth that a good CF can make up much for bad corner OFs. For the most part, balls are hit to a place where only one player has a shot to catch it.
The Dude of NY
12:39
Are you in favor of the NL adopting the DH?
Dave Cameron
12:39
Yes.
Jon
12:40
Cubs have no outfielder depth? Thats the first time I've hear anyone say that. Do you mean defensively, because Bryant Zobrist Coghlan Baez(?) seems like a lot of depth.
Dave Cameron
12:40
You're not playing any of the first three in CF, and Baez has only played CF in winter ball, so he's not something they should be counting on.
Max
12:41
How much will Chapman get as a FA next year? Too much of a risk to give a long term deal, right? Somewhere in the 5/$120 range or is that too high for a closer?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Too high, especially with his off field issues.
Jojo
12:42
What's team expected to be in playoff contention next year do you think is most likely to absolutely bottom out and lose 95+ games
Dave Cameron
12:42
Marlins, probably.
Doug
12:43
If he can hit enough to stay in the lineup does JBJ win a gold glove in 2016?
Dave Cameron
12:43
Well Kiermeir and Pillar didn't die over the winter, so I wouldn't count those chickens yet.
NatsFan
12:43
Have you seen Daren Willman's outfield defense graphics posted on Twitter?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Yep. Having BAM hire him will probably turn out to be one of the best things that happened to the public in a while.
Drayton Moore
12:44
Are you happier with the Ian Kennedy deal after seeing how backloaded it is?
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