Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Gareth
12:36
How bad is an opening day outfield of davis, almonte and chisenhall?
Dave Cameron
12:36
Terrible.
Benny the Jet
12:37
You still expect a Soler/Inciarte swap or have those ships sailed?
Dave Cameron
12:37
Yeah, that probably isn't happening.
Tronald_Dump
12:38
Will someone ever sign Pedro Alvarez and who might it be?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Could see Houston bringing him in now that Gattis is hurt.
Joe
12:38
Is there a price on Gallardo where it would be a good deal for the Orioles?
Dave Cameron
12:38
Probably less than $30M on a three year deal.
Bumbaclot
12:39
Are the Brewers just waiting for the right time/ offer to move Lucroy or do you think they seriously plan on keeping him?
Dave Cameron
12:40
I'd bet there's a spring training deal there. They want him to prove he's healthy and build back his value, but teams don't really trade for catchers in-season, so I could see them letting scouts get some looks at him swinging the bat in early March and then pull the trigger.
Sean
12:41
Are people too high on Inciarte? He's still a valuable piece, but I think he's due for heavy regression to his fielding numbers. Last season he was strictly average offensively, but with a .329 BABIP, 4.6% BB%, and .105 ISO, I think his offense can only go down. I enjoyed watching him as a Dbacks fan last season, but I see him as more of a 1-2 WAR player, not the 3.3 fWAR or 5.1 bWAR player he was last season.
Dave Cameron
12:41
No one expects him to be a +3 to +4 WAR guy going forward, but he'd have to collapse at the plate to be a +1 WAR player. He's a league average player, or maybe a bit above that. And given five years of control, that's super valuable.
Mike
12:41
Thoughts on JD Martinez? Am I being stubborn for not fully believing?
Dave Cameron
12:42
Yes. The power is legitimate. I don't know what else you need to see.
Brendan
12:43
Years of Cost-controlled service remaining makes up a significant portion of a players value. Based on what we know about WAR aging curves, wouldn't it be prudent to hold young players in the minors as late in their careers (i.e. age 23-24) as possible to make sure you control the players prime years, regardless of how "major league ready" they appear?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Ethical issues aside, you're risking too much present value in exchange for future value that often won't materialize.
Ben
12:45
You think either Swisher or Bourn does enough in Spring Training to entice another team to take them off ATL's hands? Or more likely Swisher gets released?
Dave Cameron
12:45
Yeah, I bet Swisher gets cut and Bourn is the fourth OF.
Lee
12:45
Not that it's going to happen but I really like the idea of a Jackie Bradley Jr. for Jorge Soler trade. Seems like a win,win for both teams although Boston might have to throw in another piece to even things out.
Dave Cameron
12:45
Agree that there's a fit there.
Sirras
12:46
A friend pointed me to an article on CBS sports that suggested the Mets could buy out all of the remaining arb years of their top 5 starters (including Wheeler, not Colon) for something in the neighborhood of 130MM. Not sure I buy that. What say you, Mr. Cameron?
Dave Cameron
12:46
That sounds about right, but it wouldn't be a great idea. Arb-only contracts are not great for the team.
If you're not getting FA years, especially with a pitcher, better to go year to year in many cases.
jtt
12:48
RE: Sign and trades. Why would a team give up prospects instead of just giving up the pick and signing yourself? This would only work if the destination team gives up players worth more than the pick, which defeats the whole point
Dave Cameron
12:48
Teams aren't giving up equal picks. Teams with protected first rounders, or who have already given up their top pick, could sign a guy for a lower value selection, then trade him for something more valuable than that but less valuable than a first rounder. But MLB won't allow it, so it's moot.
Gareth
12:49
Jam had view view bra devi cat rag deck law did Flav geek flew Josh kinda for two doha spa dwell.
Dave Cameron
12:49
I published this because I think there's some chance it's a code that will alert someone to the location of a buried treasure.
Or I just published the go ahead to launch a nuke. One of the two.
Gareth
12:50
That last comment was my little nephew playing with the squiggle thing on my phone and creating words.
Dave Cameron
12:50
Aww, that's less fun.
The_Oncoming_Ace
12:50
I'm thinking about doing a baseball ballpark trip this summer. Since you live in Winston-Salem, is the Dash's ballpark worth a visit?
Dave Cameron
12:51
It's nice. I actually like Greensboro's park a little more.
Kelly
12:51
It doesn't really seem fair that the Dodgers are just the default team to sign all costly foreign free agents. I guess that's just the way that things work, but for fans of most other teams (Yankees aside, I guess) it can be a little deflating. This isn't a question yet. Your thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:51
The international system is broken. MLB realizes this, though, and will try something else in the new CBA.
Snarfle
12:52
Can healthy Lucroy in ST still get close to peak Lucroy value? At least once you account for the fewer years remaining?
Dave Cameron
12:52
No, peak Lucroy is probably gone forever.
Gareth
12:52
Mlbtraderumors.com scoffed at your assessment of a possible Bautista extention. They thought you were lowballing. Comments?
Dave Cameron
12:53
I know the numbers feel low, but realistically, what other examples are there of guys getting $100M for their 36+ seasons?
Train
12:53
When will we hear a potential suspension for Reyes / Chapman, and what do you think those suspensions will be?
Dave Cameron
12:53
I bet Reyes gets a long one, and Chapman gets a short one. I'd guess 100/25.
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