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Keith
12:22
If you were GM for the Astros, what would you have tried to do differently over the offseason? Sign a free agent for 1B or 3B? Or trade for a 1B or 3B? Try to overpay for Chris Davis? Something else? Just wondering.
Dave Cameron
12:24
Given the price he eventually went for, I probably would have tried to get in on Todd Frazier. Move Valbuena into a UT role which included a good amount of 1B time in case Singleton/Reed aren't any good, improves line-up while keeping flexibility.
Outta my way, Gyorkass!
12:24
Another question about Jay Bruce - should the Reds consider themselves lucky to get anything of value for him right now? Should they maybe hold on to him going into the season and hope he regains some of the value from earlier in his career, then revisit a trade later on? If the only trade returns he's attracting are already injured players, that can't be saying much for him.
Dave Cameron
12:24
Yeah, giving him away at this point is silly. Either pay down the contract and get a real prospect in return, or keep him and hope he builds his value.
TF Fredrik
12:25
With regards to top prospects, what do you think a reasonable expectation is of them? I know everyone thinks a player ranked in the top ten of top 100 prospects list is destined to be a superstar, but the odds of that are way lower than people think. I would think the front office looks at it as a success if a top prospect turns out average to above average WAR seasons for multiple years and fans are disappointed in anything less than multiple 6+ WAR seasons. Like if Byron Buxton’s WAR then next 5 years (assuming regular playing time) were: 1.3, 2.6, 3.6, 3, 2.4. How many people would take that right now?
Dave Cameron
12:26
I agree that people get too optimistic about the rate at which prospects succeed, but I actually think prospects as a group are still undervalued publicly, because the value when they do succeed is enormous. The fact that they bust so often doesn't mean you should trade them away for veterans.
Ol Sea Capn
12:26
Why haven't we heard more rumors of Colorado signing desmond to a pillow contract with the intention of trading mid season? Seems at least worth talking about if your CO but no rumblings. Is this just Colorado being Colorado or a matter or us not hearing everything?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Rosenthal wrote about the idea last week. My guess would be COL wants to see how much money they'll save on Reyes' suspension before they commit.
Natitude Adjuster
12:27
What are the odds Harper has more WAR in 2016 than Trout?
Dave Cameron
12:28
30%? Something like that.
mtsw
12:29
Compare Donald Trump to some baseball thing
Dave Cameron
12:29
He's like that Phillies commenter screaming about John Middleton.
Joey in China
12:30
If you had to give it a percentage, what are the chances Tulo has a career this year in that park, in that lineup?
Dave Cameron
12:30
I think the injuries are starting to take their toll, and he'll probably never be a top-5 player in baseball again.
Outta my way, Gyorkass!
12:30
Someone's going to overpay for Joey Batflip. What do you think he ultimately gets, and from whom?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Depends entirely on how good his walk year is, but something in the $100M range seems likely. Maybe 4/$90M, maybe 5/$110M, but something in there.
Jaack
12:31
Do we, in general, underrate the importance of the player development as a team skill. I mean it seems to be what's keeping Tha cardinals and giants good while ensuring the Mariners arent...
Dave Cameron
12:33
I firmly believe that the next huge revolution in baseball will be when teams start to crack the nut on player development, and the game will shift from looking for the best raw materials to focusing on how to maximize performance from what you already have.
Prisoner of WAR
12:35
Dave, you frequently assert that Mike Trout is the best young player ever. Please recall Ted Williams, a young player who was so good he was known simply as "The Kid." While Trout bested Williams as a 20 and 21-year-old, largely because he stole bases then, Williams at 22 and 23 was far superior. At 22, Williams hit and absurd .406/.553./.735 line with 147 BB and only 27 K (!) and then he won the Triple Crown at age 23 (I know, mostly stupid counting stats). He followed that up by spending his age 24-26 seasons flying planes in the Navy. You have estimated that Trout's start has been so good that he could loaf his way through most of the next 10 years and still make the HOF. He should be so lucky as to compile the type of career of Williams, whose only sub-1.000 OPS came at age 40 (followed by an age 41 season of .316/.451/.645). N.B. Trout's next 1.000 OPS year will be his first. Obviously having Ted Williams as a comp is pretty great but Trout still has a ways to go to be considered one of the greatest.
Dave Cameron
12:37
Ted Williams is maybe the best hitter of all-time. No one is arguing that Trout is a better hitter than Williams. But he's ~90% of the bat while also playing center field and providing a lot of value as a baserunner.
Kyle Schwarber
12:37
Projections on my batting average are too low. I've hit north of .300 all throughout college and minors...I just got tired at the end of last year. I'll be hitting between .280 to .300 this year. Thoughts?
Dave Cameron
12:37
Go look at guys with his contact rate and see how many hit .300.
Gareth
12:38
Many indians fans disagree with your statement that "we should sign Austin Jackson tomorrow." Jackson is not enough of an incremental upgrade over Abraham Almonte to warrant the investment of guaranteed multi millions a year on a small market budget.
Dave Cameron
12:38
You realize that signing Jackson doesn't make Almonte disappear, right? The team needs depth.
Michael
12:38
A team will win 3 world series in the next 5 years... Who do you think it will be?
Dave Cameron
12:39
The Dodgers have the best chance to be that team.
The Cubs would be not far behind.
Zonk
12:39
Maybe Brewers were smart to hang onto Will Smith. If he performs, he's exactly the type of guy teams overpay for at the deadline. Agree?
Dave Cameron
12:40
To some extent, sure, but teams were paying deadline prices for relievers this winter.
Nick
12:40
A number one starter is someone who projects at +5 WAR, number two +4 WAR, number 3 +3 WAR, number 4 +2 WAR, number 5 +1 WAR. Is this about right?
Dave Cameron
12:40
Pretty close, yeah.
Curious
12:40
Just to make us feel better about your defense of the Dodgers and so we can all understand why. Last season you defended the Billy Beane moves, including the Donaldson trade. Can we just agree that if its an analytical mind making a move you're going to be on board with it?
Dave Cameron
12:41
Yeah, because it's not like I just ranked Houston, Pittsburgh, and Oakland as having three of the worst offseasons of any team in baseball on Monday or anything.
12:42
The criticisms of the Dodgers offseason and roster are almost entirely based on the false belief that teams with money should spend that money on high-end free agents, and any other strategy is folly. It's dumb and it's wrong.
Jeff
12:43
Hi Dave; is there a number that Fangraphs could move the membership cost to in order to get rid of mobile ads entirely, at least for members? I basically can't browse the site on my phone and trying to get mobile ad providers to not serve bad ads is a pointless game of whack-a-mole.
Dave Cameron
12:44
It's a thing we've discussed. We are as annoyed with the ad issues as you are, and are looking for ways to fix them.
Rog
12:45
Jose Bautista was worth 4.5 WAR last year. If we did the analysis at the end of last season (without the benefit of 2016 projections) and use the same assumptions, we would expect the 5 free agent years to be worth 4.0, 3.75, 3.25, 2.75, 2.25 WAR valued at $146m. While I do have faith in the projections, isn't this a reasonable argument for Bautista and his agent to sell?
Dave Cameron
12:45
You don't start a player's projection with his 2015 value.
And your aging curve is way too optimistic.
Chris
12:46
Why is it that fans have no problems with how teams handle contract situations and how they try to get out of contracts (Orioles, etc) but when a player well outperforms his current contract and is looking to get paid in the next deal they call him "me first" and greedy. I don't think any of us would appreciate being underpaid.
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