Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
11:56
Bonus time today; we're going to start a few minutes early.
Ira
11:56
How will a Jay Bruce addition for the whitesox shake up the projections in the AL Central?
Dave Cameron
11:57
Well they didn't trade for Jay Bruce, so it won't. But now that they've signed Austin Jackson, Bruce serves no purpose for them.
The Jackson and Rollins signings could end up being pretty important, though. Those two probably add something like three wins to the White Sox ledger over what the team had.
They still need one more starting pitcher, I think, but the White Sox have a chance to be good this year.
Desmond
11:57
Is it fair to say the Giants and dodgers lineup and pitching is more or less dead even but when factoring in injuries dodgers are much more able to sustain why giants risk being crippled by a injury to the wrong guy ?
Dave Cameron
11:58
No, I think the Dodgers pitching is far superior to the Giants pitching. They have Kershaw.
Nick
11:58
Hey Dave! Last week I submitted a question looking for paper topics about a paper on discrimination in baseball. I really appreciated the responses! I'm going to look at height of position players vs compensation/war. I'll post my findings in a few weeks or so. Thank you again!
Dave Cameron
11:58
Glad to hear it was helpful. Look forward to reading it.
Mike
11:58
As someone who has a desire to work in baseball, particularly in baseball ops, how would you recommend getting my name out there? I know it is a very competitive line of work to get into as is, but it's something that has always fascinated me and worth a shot trying to get involved.
Dave Cameron
11:59
Build something. Learn how to code and build a tool that lives in the public space that you can use to show your skills.
Jerry
12:00
How many home runs will Kris Bryant hit in his career, assuming full health and an 18 year career?
Dave Cameron
12:00
436.
Ben
12:00
Cardinals aren't desperate enough to give the Braves what they would undoubtedly be asking for for Aybar....right?
Dave Cameron
12:01
Depends on what the Braves are asking. If they are impressed enough with Albies in camp to think he could be up in May, after the service time window passes, they might move Aybar.
Joe
12:01
It doesn't matter how well the young Braves play this spring, there's absolutely no chance any of them start opening day right? Pointless to lose a whole year of control for a couple months of what is an already lost season.
Dave Cameron
12:01
Right.
The Average Sports Fan
12:01
Are the Reds the dumpster fire I think they are, or am I missing something? I see no way they finish higher than 4th the rest of this decade.
Dave Cameron
12:01
No one knows enough to have any kind of certainty that far out. They could draft Mike Trout 2.0 in a few months. Who knows?
lunch
12:02
what would a theoretical cardinals trade for aybar look like? do you think they're going to go that way, or is it just one of those things that looks so obvious it won't actually happen?
Dave Cameron
12:02
My guess is they'll do something smaller instead. Ruben Tejada sounds like he might not even make the Mets, so I could see them taking a shot on him and seeing how it works.
Jimbo
12:02
How would you describe what BaseRuns is, what BaseRuns attempts to accomplish, and what it tells us?
Dave Cameron
12:05
BaseRuns is the best publicly available run estimator, a tool that takes a team's raw numbers (1B, 2B, HR, etc...) and models them in a way that produces an expected number of runs scored and allowed. Think of BaseRuns as a sorting mechanism; once you collect big piles of information (the number/type of baserunners), you need to make some assumptions about how they'll be distributed, and BaseRuns gives a pretty accurate assessment of how teams are likely to distribute their baserunners, both for and against.
Generally, the difference between a team's RS/RA (and W/L, based on putting those run estimates into pythagenpat) tells us how efficient a team was at distributing their events.
Q-Ball
12:06
Dave, last month you wrote about the Cubs off season grade "I’d still have preferred if they turned one of their extra pieces into a center fielder...... but with that exception, the Cubs off season was basically perfect." Then they signed Dexter Fowler. Was the Cubs offseason basically perfect? Will you officially up-grade them to the coveted Cameron A+?
Dave Cameron
12:06
Yeah, I can't really see that they could have had a better off-season. A+ winter for an A+ team.
birdwatcher
12:07
Dave: what is your opinion of how Dan Duquette has handled this past offseason? IMO you should be absolutely sure that you have Fowler signed first before tendering an offer to Gallardo. I don't mind losing the #14 pick for Fowler, but Gallardo? No way.
Dave Cameron
12:08
Yeah, I didn't like the Orioles offseason at all. Davis might have been forced on them by Angelos, but the rest of it was bad too. I think there's a decent chance the Orioles implode this year, winning 65-75 games, and have to start thinking about whether to trade Machado next winter. There's a very high risk of disaster in Baltimore.
Zonk
12:08
Dave, you have tempered some pretty high expectations here on what Kyle Schwarber is and could be. "A left-handed Mike Napoli", IIRC. Still, if the 2014 draft were re-done today, would he be your first pick (disregarding team need)? If not, who would you take in front of him?
Dave Cameron
12:09
With today's knowledge, I'd probably take Trea Turner or Michael Conforto #1 overall. Schwarber and Rodon would be 3-4 in some order.
Joe
12:10
Dave Schoenfield (in an admittedly unrealistic article) noted that the Orioles could break the home run record, and with the exact same run prevention as 2015 would win 97 games. That's almost certainly not going to happen, but could they be legit contenders if they mash at historic levels?
Dave Cameron
12:10
Well, sure, if they hit 300 homers, then they'll be good. But you could play that game with every team in baseball.
Q-Ball
12:11
Speaking of off-season grades, would you now rank the White Sox higher than B+? Given their financial constraints, I think they did a really good job of filling some gaping holes at 3B, 2B, OF Defense. They added like 5-8 wins without spending money or gutting the farm. What is your take?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Yeah, I think they signed Rollins right after I wrote that post, and then Jackson helps too. I'd probably give them an A- or A now.
Chris
12:11
Listening to your podcast this week I suddenly wondered why baseball doesn't play games in the rain? It isn't tennis where the ball becomes unusable in the rain. Is this just the way its always been or are there significant changes to the game that make it unplayable in rain?
Dave Cameron
12:11
Running in cleats in wet dirt is super dangerous.
12:12
Also, do you want a pitcher throwing a ball 98 mph when he doesn't have a good grip?
AZ
12:13
If you had to compare Aaron Blair's expected results to a current MLB starting pitcher, who would you choose?
Dave Cameron
12:13
Jimmy Nelson, maybe?
Scott
12:13
For position players, what single tool is most helpful for making the majors? Speed? Power? Defense?
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